基于相空间重构及模糊聚类的供电服务风险评价模型  

Power Supply Service Risk Evaluation Model Based on Phase Space Reconstruction and Fuzzy Clustering

作　　者：陈婷 郭亚琪 彭杰 李巍 CHEN Ting;GUO Ya-qi;PENG Jie;LI Wei(Yunnan Power Grid Customer Service Center,Kunming 650217 China)

机构地区：[1]云南电网有限公司客户服务中心,云南昆明650217

出　　处：《自动化技术与应用》2024年第10期217-220,共4页Techniques of Automation and Applications

摘　　要：由于供电服务过程会因线路故障,导致供电异常、评估结果不精准等情况,提出基于相空间重构及模糊聚类的供电服务风险评价模型。通过相空间重构分析参数延迟时间及维数,采用符号分析法计算互信息函数,得到准确延迟时间,通过模糊隶属度判定最优聚类中心,实现最佳聚类减少供电服务风险产生。利用负载均衡调度监控供电服务风险状态,构建量化评价模型以及线路故障概率模型,获取状态风险关联规则向量,根据模糊聚类法对风险特征信息聚类处理,完成供电服务风险评估。仿真实验结果表明,所提算法具有较强的抗干扰性能,评估精准度较好。Because the power supply service process will lead to abnormal power supply and inaccurate evaluation results due to line fault,a power supply service risk assessment model based on phase space reconstruction and fuzzy clustering is proposed.The delay time and dimension of parameters are analyzed by phase space reconstruction.The mutual information function is calculated by sym-bolic analysis method to get the accurate delay time.The optimal clustering center is determined by fuzzy membership degree to realize the optimal clustering and reduce the risk of power supply service.Load balancing dispatching is used to monitor the risk state of power supply service,and the quantitative evaluation model and line fault probability model are constructed.The state risk association rule vector is obtained,and the risk characteristic information is clustered according to the fuzzy clustering meth-od to complete the power supply service risk assessment.Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm has strong anti-in-terference performance and good evaluation accuracy.

关 键 词：风险评估 相空间重构 模糊聚类 互信息函数 符号分析法 

分 类 号：TP183[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]