病毒携带人群影响手足口病传播的数学模型及动力学分析  

Modeling and Dynamics Analysis of the Impact of Virus Carriers on the Transmission of HFMD

作　　者：白朵 贺静敏 王爱丽 BAI Duo;HE Jingmin;WANG Aili(School of Mathematics and Information Science,Baoji University of Arts and Sciences,Baoji 721013,Shanxi,China;School of Science,Xi'an University of Technology,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]宝鸡文理学院数学与信息科学学院,陕西宝鸡721013 [2]西安理工大学理学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《武汉大学学报（理学版）》2024年第4期526-538,共13页Journal of Wuhan University:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(12271431);陕西省突发公共卫生应急专项项目(20JG002);校级研究生创新科研项目(YJSCX23YB32)。

摘　　要：建立了一类具有周期传染率的手足口病模型,研究病毒携带者对疾病传播的影响。定义了模型的基本再生数R 0,分析了模型无病平衡态的全局稳定性和正周期解的存在性。结果表明,当R 0<1时,手足口病最终从人群中消除;当R 0>1时,疾病演变为地方病并呈现周期性变化。应用实际数据对模型参数进行了估计,并给出R 0的估计值为2.3286。关键参数的敏感性分析表明,降低病毒携带者的传染性、加强高危人群的手部消毒和日常清洁、增强公众对手足口病的重视程度、加强自我干预措施的实施,均可有效遏制手足口病的传播。In this paper,an HFMD(hand,foot,and mouth disease)model with periodic transmission rate was established to study the effect of virus carriers on disease transmission.The basic reproduction number of the model is defined.The global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the existence of a positive periodic solution are analyzed.The results demonstrated that the HFMD was finally eliminated from the population when,R 0<1;while the disease becomes endemic and it varies periodically when,R 0>1.The model's parameters are estimated using the data,and R 0 is estimated as 2.3286.The sensitivity analysis of critical parameters is carried out.The study's findings suggest that the spread of HFMD can be effectively controlled by implementing several key measures.These include reducing the infectivity of virus carriers,enhancing hand hygiene and daily cleaning practices among high-risk populations,increasing public awareness and education,and strengthening the implementation of self-protective interventions.

关 键 词：手足口病 病毒携带者 基本再生数 全局动力学 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学] R181[理学—数学]