面向高质量发展的基础教育师资需求及供给预测  

Forecasting the Supply and Demand of Teachers for Basic Education Oriented to High-Quality Development

作　　者：王红[1,2] 池志阳 Wang Hong;Chi Zhiyang(the College of Teacher Education,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510631;the Teacher Education College of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,South China Normal University)

机构地区：[1]华南师范大学教师教育学部,广州510631 [2]华南师范大学粤港澳大湾区教师教育学院

出　　处：《教育研究》2024年第9期37-51,共15页Educational Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金2022年度教育学重大项目“新时代高质量教师教育体系建设及师资供需配给研究”(编号:VFA220007)的研究成果。

摘　　要：在基础教育学龄人口总体下降的趋势背景下,班级规模和班师比是教育高质量发展的关键指标。本研究综合考虑课时总量、教师工作负荷等因素,对2024—2035年各学段班级规模进行了高标方案、现实方案以及班师比逐年达标的测算。高标方案以经济合作与发展组织国家的平均班级规模为参照目标,基于此方案预测的师资需求会产生较大的经费缺口,经费保障不足。现实方案采用随学龄人口变化等比放缩和指数平滑的方法综合测算并规划班级规模的有序缩减,该方案下的师资预测结果显示,2024—2035年基础教育各学段的师资需求均不减反增,除初中师资需求在波动中小幅上涨外,其余学段均稳步增长;教育经费会出现结构性与阶段性的盈缺波动,但经费保障总体可行。在师资供给方面,不同渠道供给占比将发生结构性变动。其中,开放性渠道教师及师范类本科生供给趋于下降,师范类硕士生供给持续提升。对标教育高质量发展需求,基础教育应制定班级规模分学段、分阶段有序缩减计划;师范教育规模须在总体稳定的基础上进行内部结构性调整;开放性渠道教师供给要提高准入标准;基础教育各学段应建立师资及经费贯通调配机制。Against the backdrop of a declining school-age population in basic education,the class size and the classto-teacher ratio have become key indicators for the high-quality development of education.This study,based on total class hours,teachers'workloads and other factors,estimates high-standard,realistic,and year-by-year up-to-standard class sizes across different educational stages between 2024 and 2035.The high-standard scenario,which uses the average class size of OECD countries as a benchmark,indicates a significant funding gap in the forecasted demand for teachers,making financial support unsustainable.The realistic scenario uses the methods of proportional shrinkage and exponential smoothing to estimate and plan the orderly shrinkage of class sizes based on the changes in school-age population,and under the realistic scenario the demand for teachers in each educational stage of basic education between 2024 and 2035will not decrease but increase;the demand for lower secondary school teachers will rise slightly amid fluctuations,while the demand for teachers in other educational stages will grow steadily;there will be structural and periodic fluctuations in education funds,but the overall funding remains sustainable.In terms of the supply of teachers,the proportions of the supply of teachers from different channels will change structurally:there will be a decline in the supply of teachers from open channels and undergraduates from teacher-training programs,but a continuous increase in the supply of postgraduates from teacher-training programs.To meet the demands for the high-quality development of education,we need to formulate an orderly plan for the shrinkage of class sizes across different educational stages or periods in basic education;structurally adjust pre-service teacher education based on the overall stable demand for teachers;raise the standard for the admission of teachers from open channels;and establish a mechanism for the coherent allocation of teachers and funds in each educational stage of basi

关 键 词：基础教育 高质量发展 师资需求 经费保障 师资供给 

分 类 号：G635.1[文化科学—教育学]