重庆市小学教育规模相关预测及对策研究  

The Prediction and Countermeasures of the Scale of Primary Education in Chongqing

作　　者：罗世海 罗万春 LUO Shihai;LUO Wanchun(School of Media Arts,Chongqing University of Post and Telecommunication,Chongqing 400065;Mathematics Department of Basic Medical College,Army Medical University,Chongqing 400038)

机构地区：[1]重庆邮电大学传媒艺术学院,重庆400065 [2]陆军军医大学数学教研室,重庆400038

出　　处：《科教导刊》2024年第27期146-148,共3页The Guide Of Science & Education

基　　金：陆军军医大学红医教学名师项目(2022)。

摘　　要：文章用ARIMA、指数平滑法和BP神经网络对2023―2030年重庆市小学学龄人口、小学女性学龄人口、师生比、小学学校数和出生率进行预测,预测结果的可决系数在0.785―0.994之间。在5项指标的预测中,ARIMA的平稳R平方在0.506―0.629之间。主城都市区城镇化率与小学数量相关系数为-0.689,呈显著负相关。从预测结果看,小学学龄人口、小学女性学龄人口、小学学校数和出生率均呈下降趋势,师生比呈上升变化,由此,文章提出了推行小班教学、打造小学教育新高地、关注偏远地区小学等教育对策。Using methods including ARIMA,exponential smoothing and Back-Propagation Neural Network to predict the population of primary school students,the population of primary school female students,the ratio of teachers and students,the number of schools and the birth rate.The coefficients of determination of the predicted results range between 0.785 and 0.994,inclusive.The stationary coefficients of determination of the five indexes range between0.506 and 0.629,inclusive,using the method ARIMA.The ratios of urbanization have significantly negative correlation with the numbers of primary schools,and the correlation coefficient is-0.689.The prediction illustrates that the trend of the population of primary school students,the population of primary school female students,the number of schools and the birth rate show downward trajectories,and the trend of the ratio of teachers and students shows an upward trajectory.So,the educational countermeasures were proposed including promoting small-sized classes,constructing new advanced primary education empirical schools,and paying more attention in those primary schools in developing areas.

关 键 词：小学教育规模 指数平滑法 ARIMA BP神经网络 

分 类 号：G626[文化科学—教育学]