新房价格底部特征分析及政策建议  

Analysis of the Bottom Characteristics of New House Prices and Policy Recommendations

作　　者：邓郁松[1] 牛三元 苏诺雅 

机构地区：[1]国务院发展研究中心市场经济研究所,100010

出　　处：《中国房地产金融》2024年第5期28-36,共9页China Real Estate Finance

摘　　要：判断房价的趋势和拐点,是房地产市场研究的重点和难点,需要找到关键的分析指标。主要发达国家房地产市场发展历程表明,房价收入比的低点通常是房价的低点,房贷利率连续大幅下调会促进房价企稳,租金回报率超过无风险利率时房价触底支撑增强,购房意愿度最低时往往也是房价筑底的时候。我国在2008—2009年和2014—2015年经历过两次房价下行,房价筑底时房价收入比、个人住房贷款利率、租金回报率与无风险利率的利差、购房者预期四个指标均表现出了与国际市场相似的特征。本轮始于2021年下半年的房地产市场下行,是时间最长、房价调整幅度最大的一次。用房价收入比等四个指标判断,当前新房价格已呈现明显的底部特征。建议重视解决房企资金紧张问题,优化住房供给结构,降低居民改善置换成本,促进房地产市场尽快回稳。Identifying the trends and the turning points of housing prices is both a major focus and a challenge in real estate market research,which requires accurate key analytical indicators.The historical trajectory of real estate markets in major developed countries shows that housing prices tend to bottom out when the price-to-income ratio hits its low point,and significant reductions in mortgage rates over a sustained period help stabilize prices.Additionally,when rental yields exceed risk-free interest rates,the support for housing price floors strengthens.Interestingly,the period when market expectations are at their most pessimistic often coincides with the bottoming out of housing prices.In China,during the two housing market downturns of 2008—2009 and 2014—2015,four key indicators—the price-to-income ratio,personal housing loan rates,the spread between rental yields and risk-free interest rates,and buyer expectations—exhibited patterns similar to those observed in international markets.The current real estate downturn,which began in the second half of 2021,is the longest and has seen the largest price adjustments in recent history.An analysis based on these four indicators suggests that current new home prices are showing clear signs of having bottomed out.It is advisable to focus on resolving the financial constraints of real estate companies,optimizing the housing supply structure,lowering the costs for residents looking to upgrade or replace their homes,and facilitating the swift stabilization of the real estate market.

关 键 词：房地产周期 房价底部 房价收入比 利率 预期 

分 类 号：F8[经济管理]