统计学与动力学方法结合的渭河上游干旱研究  

Drought analysis of the upper Wei River based on statistics and dynamics theory

作　　者：朱悦璐 李光灿 罗冬兰[1] ZHU Yuelu;LI Guangcan;LUO Donglan(School of Hydraulic Engineering,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China;Ankang Jiuxing Construction Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Ankang 725000,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌工程学院水利工程学院,江西南昌330099 [2]安康市九星建筑工程有限公司,陕西安康725000

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2024年第5期40-45,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52069014);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52309001)。

摘　　要：为更加准确地识别和预测干旱事件,以林家村水文站1960—2020年长系列日径流数据为基础,将统计学和动力学方法相结合,分别计算水文干旱概率P、径流分维数D_(2)、径流李雅普诺夫指数LE等参数,并建立D_(2)-P,LE-P函数关系,从混沌动力学角度求解干旱概率;由径流Z指数序列重构相空间,并在相空间中对未来干旱事件进行预测。研究结果表明:统计参数P与混沌参数D_(2)、LE具有较好的线性关系,回归方程的决定系数R^(2)值分别为0.93和0.83;在预测区间内,混沌预报模型预测2021年的径流Z指数为1.69,其对应的水文干旱状态为“无旱”,该结论与实际水文情势相吻合,预测效果良好。研究方案可为干旱理论提供一种新的借鉴。To more accurately identify and predict drought events,this study uses the long series of daily runoff in the Linjiacun Hydrological Station from 1960 to 2020 as data input.By combining statistics and dynamics methods,we calculated hydrological drought probability P,runoff fractal dimension D_(2)and runoff Lyapunov exponent LE,and established functional relationships for P-D_(2),P-LE to solve the drought probability from the perspective of chaotic dynamics.Furthermore,the runoff Z-index sequence is used to reconstruct the phase space,within which the future drought events are predicted.The research results show that the statistical parameter P has a good linear relationship with the chaotic parameter D_(2)and LE,with regression equation R^(2)values of 0.93 and 0.83,respectively.Within the prediction interval,the runoff Z-index for 2021 is predicted to be 1.69 by the chaotic prediction model,corresponding to a hydrological drought state of“no drought”.This conclusion is consistent with the actual hydrological situation,demonstrating a good predictive performance of the model.This research can provide a new approach for the study of drought theory.

关 键 词：水文干旱 动力学方案 相空间重构 李雅普诺夫指数 分维数 渭河上游 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] P426.616[水利工程—水文学及水资源]