减税冲击、土地调控与城投债定价  

Tax Cut Shock,Land Regulation,and Municipal Investment Bonds Pricing

作　　者：罗美娟[1] 黄子建 张牧扬[2] LUO Mei-juan;HUANG Zi-jian;ZHANG Mu-yang(School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650500,Yunnan,China;China Public Finance Institute,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai 200433,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院,昆明650500 [2]上海财经大学中国公共财政研究院,上海200433

出　　处：《西部论坛》2024年第5期65-79,共15页West Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72363035,72273079);云南大学第十五届研究生科研创新项目(KC-23234333)。

摘　　要：减税冲击会加大地方财政压力,而地方政府隐性担保能力的下降会导致城投债发行利差上升;然而,城投债是地方经济建设的重要融资手段,地方政府有动机采取增信措施来抵消减税冲击的影响,甚至促使城投债利差下降。基于2017—2019年的三次增值税税率下调实践,通过产业结构、减税点数和政策时间构造地级市层面的减税冲击变量,分析发现:减税冲击会扩大地方政府的财政收支缺口,但地方政府会采取土地调控措施来为城投公司提供增信,导致城投债的发行利差不升反降;具体而言,面对减税冲击,地方政府并没有调整土地出让结构、提高工业用地和住宅用地出让价格,而是通过向城投公司注入土地资产、提高商服用地出让价格的路径来提升城投公司的融资能力、抵押价值和信用水平,这也反映出地方政府“以地谋发展”的运作方式已由土地财政转向土地金融。因此,应深化土地要素市场化配置改革,打破地方政府在土地征收和出让环节的双垄断格局;划清地方投融资平台和地方政府之间的界限,促进地方财政的可持续发展,改变地方政府过度依赖土地调控的局面。Between 2017 and 2019,China implemented an unprecedented value-added tax(VAT)rate cut policy.With the significant reduction of fiscal revenue that acts as a guarantee for the government,will this affect the issuance spreads of municipal investment bonds?Municipal investment bonds are an important financing tool for local governments.In the face of the tax cut shock,will local governments take credit enhancement measures to offset the impact of the tax cut shock?Based on the VAT cut points,this paper constructs the tax cut shock variables at the prefecture-level city level,combined with the issuance data of municipal investment bonds,and finds that the tax cut shock does not improve the issuance spread of municipal investment bonds,but reduces its issuance spread.The main reason is that the local government,faced with the tax cut shock,will provide credit-enhancing effect for local government financing vehicles(LGFVs)through land regulation,which has two specific measures:(1)Injecting or granting commercial and residential land to local government financing vehicles(LGFVs)to enhance its financing capacity;(2)Increasing the transfer price of commercial and residential land to enhance the collateral value of the land and improve the credit level of local government financing vehicles(LGFVs).At the same time,the adjustment of land grant revenue and structure has not been obvious,suggesting that at this stage,the operation of“land for development”is gradually shifting from land finance to land financialization.This paper contributes to the existing literature in two aspects.Firstly,we construct tax cut shock variables by considering industrial structure,tax reduction points,and policy timing,thereby providing a more scientifically rigorous examination of the economic effects of tax cut shocks.Secondly,we incorporate the response behavior of local governments in terms of land transfer into the analytical framework of the impact of tax cuts on the pricing of municipal investment bonds.This provides a reasonable expl

关 键 词：增值税 城投债 信用利差 政府隐性担保 土地出让 土地资产 土地金融 

分 类 号：F293.2[经济管理—国民经济] F812.7