全球供应链转移对中国“双碳”目标的影响  

Impact of global supply chain transfer on China's"dual-carbon"goals

作　　者：王润雨 黄韬 凌再莉 任吉 魏梓建 宋世杰 马建民 WANG Runyu;HUANG Tao;LING Zaili;REN Ji;WEI Zijan;SONG Shijie;MA Jianmin(Key Laboratory for Environmental Pollution Prediction and Control,College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000,China;College of Agricultural and Forestry Economics&Management,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China;Laboratory for Earth Surface Processes,College of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,甘肃省环境污染预警与控制重点实验室,兰州730000 [2]兰州财经大学农林经济管理学院,兰州730020 [3]北京大学城市与环境学院,地表过程分析与模拟教育部重点实验室,北京100871

出　　处：《科技导报》2024年第19期85-97,共13页Science & Technology Review

基　　金：甘肃省科技计划项目(22JR11RA135)。

摘　　要：随着全球化深入发展,国际供应链加速转移,中国等发展中国家成为全球制造业中心,这对全球碳排放格局产生了显著影响。利用多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,定量估计了2004和2014年全球141个国家和地区在全球贸易中的隐含碳排放转移及对中国碳排放的影响。结果表明,2004--2014年各国间的贸易活动进一步加强,其隐含碳排放规模不断扩大。2014年全球贸易中隐含CO_(2),转移量高达4244.0百万t,约占全球CO_(2),总排放量的1/4。作为全球贸易中隐含碳转移的中心,中国净出口隐含碳排放从2004年的1200.0百万t增加到2014年的1461.9百万t,分别占全球28.7%和34.4%的碳转移。中国出口隐含碳排放主要集中在能源密集型和碳密集型产业,而进口中隐含的碳排放主要集中于服务业和轻工业等低能耗产业。因此,在全球供应链转移和中国“双碳”目标背景下,为减少碳排放,中国应积极倡导建立基于生产侧和消费侧共同承担责任的全球碳排放核算机制,以确保公平合理的排放权分配。同时,优化出口贸易结构,加快低碳经济转型,并提高能源使用效率。此外,还应加强国际合作,建立有效的沟通与协作平台,为全球碳减排和气候治理做出积极贡献。With the deepening of globalization and the accelerated transfer of international supply chains,developing countries,such as China,have become global manufacturing centers,which has significant impact on global distribution of CO_(2),emissions.In the present study,we quantitatively estimate CO_(2),emissions transfer embodied in trade for 141 countries and regions in 2004 and 2014 and the impact on CO_(2),emissions in China by using the multi-regional input-output(MRIO)model.Results show that CO_(2),emissions embodied in global dramatically increased during 2004-2014 due to further strengthening of trade activities among the countries.In 2014,CO_(2),emissions embodied in global trade was 4244 million tons,accounting for approximately one-quarter of the total global emissions.As the center of CO_(2),emissions transfer embodied in trade,the net transfer of CO_(2),emissions embodied in export in China increased from 1200 million tones to 1462 millions in 2014,accounting for 28%and 34%of global carbon transfers.In China,CO_(2),emissions embodied in the export sector have concentrated in energy-intensive and carbon-intensive industries,while those embodied in the import sector concentrated in low-energy-consuming industries such as services and light industry.Thus,in the context of the global supply chain transfer and China's"dual carbon"goals,to reduce CO_(2),emissions,China should actively advocate to establish a global carbon emission accounting framework based on the production-consumption joint responsibility,to ensure fair and reasonable allocation of emission rights.At the same time,China should optimize the export trade structure,accelerate transformation of low-carbon economy,and improve energy efficiency.In addition,it is necessary to strengthen international cooperation,establish effective communication and collaboration platforms,and make positive contributions to global CO_(2),emissions reduction and climate governance.

关 键 词：全球供应链转移 “双碳”目标 多区域投入产出分析 碳排放转移 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F274[经济管理—企业管理]