长江经济带农业碳补偿率的时空演进特征及碳补偿潜力预测  

Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Agricultural Carbon Offset Rate and Prediction of Carbon Offset Potential in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

作　　者：唐菁 易露 曾庆均[1] TANG Jing;YI Lu;ZENG Qing-jun(Institute of Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone Development,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学成渝地区双城经济圈建设研究院,重庆400067

出　　处：《环境科学》2024年第11期6378-6391,共14页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年科学基金项目(23CJY049);重庆市社会科学规划博士项目(2023BS020);重庆工商大学研究生科研创新项目(yjscxx2023-211-3)。

摘　　要：分别基于长江经济带地级市及以上城市和省级面板数据,测度2006~2021年农业碳排放量、碳汇量及碳补偿率,分析其演进特征;基于STIRPAT模型和岭回归分析,识别长江经济带11个省市农业碳排放各自的影响因素,并结合情景分析法,预测基准情景下,11个省市2022~2025年的农业碳排放量,分析其农业“碳达峰”进程;同时预测11个省市2022~2025年的农业碳汇量,进而通过农业碳补偿率推测其农业“碳中和”进程,总结出不同省市实现农业“碳达峰,碳中和”的有效路径.结果表明:①观测期内长江经济带农业碳排放变化大致呈倒“U”型,并于2015年达峰,峰值为33312.65×10^(4) t;农业碳汇波动幅度较小,总体呈上升趋势;农业碳补偿率上升趋势明显,但仍属于“净碳排”区域.②农业碳补偿率区域差异突出,存在极化现象,“净碳汇”城市显著少于“净碳排”城市.③上海、浙江和四川于2006年实现了农业碳达峰,安徽和重庆在2012年实现,其余省市碳排放上升趋势明显.④安徽、重庆、四川和云南跨过“农业碳中和线”,实现了农业碳中和,江苏有望在2026~2030年实现,其余省市农业碳中和难度较大.Based on the panel data of prefecture-level cities and above and provincial-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,respectively,this study measured the agricultural carbon emissions,carbon sinks,and carbon offset rates from 2006 to 2021 and analyzed their evolution characteristics.Based on the STIRPAT model and ridge regression analysis,this study identified the factors affecting agricultural carbon emissions in the 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Zone,combined them with the scenario analysis method to predict the agricultural carbon emissions under the baseline scenario in the period of 2022 to 2025,and analyzed the process of“carbon peaking.”Simultaneously,this study predicted the agricultural carbon sinks of 11 provinces and cities from 2022 to 2025 and then speculated their agricultural“carbon neutral”process under the framework of agricultural carbon compensation rate,so as to summarize the effective paths for different provinces and cities to achieve agricultural“carbon peak and carbon neutral.”The results showed that:①Changes in agricultural carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Economic Zone during the observation period followed an inverted U-shape and peaked in 2015 at 33312.65×10^(4) tons.The fluctuation of agricultural carbon sinks was relatively small,with an overall upward trend.The upward trend of the agricultural carbon offset rate was obvious,but it still belonged to the“net carbon emission”region.②Regional differences of agricultural carbon offsetting rate were prominent,and there was a polarization phenomenon,with“net carbon sink”cities significantly less than“net carbon emission”cities.③Shanghai,Zhejiang,and Sichuan reached the peak of agricultural carbon emissions in 2006,which Anhui and Chongqing reached in 2012,and the rest of the provinces and municipalities showed a clear upward trend.④Anhui,Chongqing,Sichuan,and Yunnan crossed the“agricultural carbon neutral line”and achieved agricultural carbon neutrality.Jiangs

关 键 词：农业碳补偿率 净零排放 STIRPAT模型 情景设置 潜力预测 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]