需求不确定下考虑承包商风险规避的建筑供应链协调  

Coordination of Construction Supply Chain Considering Contractor Risk Aversion with Uncertain Demand

作　　者：孙学芳 闫得焕 SUN Xuefang;YAN Dehuan(School of Management Engineering,Qingdao University of Technology,Qingdao 266520,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学管理工程学院,山东青岛266520

出　　处：《物流技术》2024年第9期118-134,共17页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：针对承包商的风险规避行为,构建了需求不确定下的建筑供应链决策模型。采用条件风险值对承包商的风险规避程度进行量化,讨论了分散决策和集中决策下的最优订货量和最优定价。针对风险规避行为引起的供应链效率下降问题,引入收益共享-回购契约和收益共享-回购-损失分担契约来协调建筑供应链,分别分析了需求标准差、风险规避系数、收益共享因子、回购价格、损失分担系数对供应商和承包商决策及利润的影响。研究表明,这两种契约均能协调承包商有风险规避行为的建筑供应链,但其实现建筑供应链帕累托改进的效果受到需求标准差、风险规避程度和契约参数的影响。最后,通过算例验证了契约协调的有效性。In this paper,we establish the decision model for a construction supply chain composed of a risk-averse contractor and a risk-neutral supplier under demand uncertainty and giving consideration of the risk-avoidance behavior of the contractor.The risk-avoidance level of the contractor is quantified using the Conditional Value at Risk(CVaR)method,based on which we discuss the optimal order quantity for the contractor and the optimal pricing for the supplier under the decentralized and centralized decision-making modes respectively and find that the profit of the entire construction supply chain is lower under decentralized decision-making than under centralized decision-making.To optimize the overall profit of the construction supply chain under decentralized decision-making,we introduce in the profit-sharing/repurchase contract and the profit-sharing/repurchase/loss-sharing contract to coordinate the supply chain and look at the impact of demand standard deviation,risk aversion coefficient,profit-sharing factor,repurchase price,and loss-sharing coefficient on the decision and profit of the supplier and the contractor.Using a numerical example,we reach the following conclusions:as for the contractor's profit,the profitsharing/repurchase/loss-sharing contract is superior to the profit-sharing/repurchase contract despite the difference in demand standard deviation;as for the supplier's profit,only given large demand standard deviation,that is,when the demand uncertainty is high,is the profit-sharing/repurchase contract superior to the profit-sharing/repurchase/loss-sharing contract;however,in terms of the combined profit for the two parties,the profit-sharing/repurchase/loss-sharing contract is always superior to the profit-sharing/repurchase contract at different risk aversion levels.Finally we draw a few management insights,more specifically:(1)The supplier can share risks through contract to reduce the degree of risk avoidance by the contractor,thereby improving the benefits of both parties and of the entire suppl

关 键 词：建筑供应链 需求不确定 风险规避 条件风险值 供应链协调 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理] F407.91[经济管理—国民经济]