面向2035年的我国城乡义务教育师资结构需求及优化研究  

Research on the Demand and Optimization of Teacher Structure for Urban and Rural Compulsory Education in China towards 2035

作　　者：李维 杨顺艳 LI Wei;YANG Shunyan(School of Education,Guizhou Normal University,Guiyang 550025,Guizhou,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州师范大学教育学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《复旦教育论坛》2024年第5期95-104,共10页Fudan Education Forum

基　　金：福建省社会科学规划青年项目“‘十四五’时期福建农村义务教育师资保障机制问题诊断及创新研究”(FJ2021C116)。

摘　　要：本研究利用第七次人口普查数据,对面向2035年的中国城乡义务教育师资需求结构进行预测,并在此基础上分析了其盈缺状况。结果表明:(1)义务教育阶段所需师资总体呈下降趋势,在小学阶段,城乡小学的师资需求数量均呈先持续下降、后保持平稳趋势;在初中阶段,城乡初中师资需求均呈现出先增后减的趋势。(2)城市、县镇、农村小学均呈现出语、数、外等传统学科师资富余,而科学、体育、综合课程活动等学科师资先短缺后富余变动状况;同理,城市、县镇、农村初中则均呈现出外语、信息技术、历史与地理等学科师资富余,语文、体育等学科师资先缺后剩的变动状况。(3)师资需求盈缺状况在中小学阶段呈现出不同的特点:在小学阶段,2023—2026年需补充师资21.64万人,2027—2030年将过剩87.65万人,在2031—2035年之间则需补充师资0.47万人;在初中阶段,2023—2030年之间需要补充师资114.95万人,而2031—2035年之间将过剩53.80万人。This study utilizes data from the seventh national census to forecast the demand structure for teachers in China's urban and rural compulsory education from 2023 to 2035,and further analyzes the surplus and shortage situations based on these predictions.The findings reveal:(1)An overall downward trend is observed in the demand for teachers in the compulsory education phase.Specifically,in primary schools,the demand for teachers in both urban and rural areas initially declines and then stabilizes;in junior high schools,the demand initially rises and then falls.(2)Urban,county,and rural primary schools all exhibit a surplus of teachers in traditional subjects such as Chinese,mathematics,and foreign languages,while there is a shift from shortage to surplus in subjects like science,physical education,and integrated curriculum activities;Similarly,in urban,county,and rural junior high schools,there is a surplus of teachers in subjects such as foreign languages,information technology,history,and geography,while there is a shift from shortage to surplus in subjects like Chinese and physical education.(3)The surplus and shortage of teacher demand exhibit distinct characteristics in primary and secondary schools:in primary schools,216,400 additional teachers will be needed from 2023 to 2026,while an excess of 876,500 teachers is anticipated from 2027 to 2030,followed by a need for 4,700 additional teachers from 2031 to 2035;in junior high schools,a demand for 1.1495 million additional teachers arises from 2023 to 2030,whereas an excess of 538,000 teachers is expected from 2031 to 2035.

关 键 词：城乡 义务教育 在校生 师资需求 

分 类 号：G635.1[文化科学—教育学]