新学龄人口格局下中小学教师队伍建设:重点趋势及路径选择  

Key Trends and Countermeasures for the Construction of Primary and Secondary School Teachers Based on the New School Age Population Pattern

作　　者：李新翠[1] 英成金 Xincui Li;Chengjin Ying(Division of Education Experiment Collaboration,Education Finance Research Institute,China Academy of Educational Sciences,Beijing 100088)

机构地区：[1]中国教育科学研究院教育实验协作处,教育财政研究所,北京100088

出　　处：《教育与经济》2024年第6期70-76,93,共8页Education & Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金2024年度教育学一般项目“新人口格局下基础教育师资配置编制标准改革研究”(项目编号BGA240088)的研究成果。

摘　　要：基于2020年第七次全国人口普查数据,运用队列要素法模拟2020-2050年间我国分城乡各阶段学龄儿童的规模和结构变动。基于学龄人口预测结果和经综合研究确定的生师比,充分考虑教师退休等变动情况,预测我国未来教师需求及待补充情况。研究发现,各学段适龄学生呈现总体减少且不同时段变动趋势不同,师资需求趋势存在典型的学段特征,同学段内城乡师资需求差异明显。为此,建议从多领域调整教师队伍建设战略、分阶段规划教师队伍建设、多环节提升教师培养层次和多路径优化教师城乡调配等方面谋划教师队伍建设战略。Based on the latest data from the 7th National Population Census in 2020,the queue element method is used to simulate the scale and structural changes of school-age children in different stages of urban and rural areas in China from 2020 to 2050.Based on the predicted school-age population and current teacher allocation standards,fully considering changes in teacher retirement and other factors,predict future teacher demand and the situation to be supplemented.Research has found that there is an overall decrease in eligible students in each stage,with different trends in teacher demand during different periods.There are typical characteristics of each stage,and there are significant differences in teacher demand between urban and rural areas within the same stage.Therefore,in view of the trend of a decrease in the total demand for basic education teachers,a greater degree and duration of surplus in lower education stages,and an expanding urban-rural gap with coexisting surplus and shortage,it is necessary to plan a teacher team construction strategy from multiple dimensions,such as raising teacher admission thresholds,improving teacher training levels in multiple aspects,tapping into existing teacher resources through multiple channels,and optimizing teacher urban-rural allocation through multiple measures.

关 键 词：新学龄人口格局 中小学教师队伍建设 重点趋势 

分 类 号：F08[经济管理—政治经济学] G40-054[文化科学—教育学原理]