长株潭地区1970-2020年极端干旱时空分布特征  

The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of extreme drought in the Chang Zhu Tan region from 1970 to 2020

作　　者：尹宝蓉 黄昱博 辜倩 何宁 Yin Baorong;Huang Yubo;Gu Qian;He Ning(Xiangtan Meteorological Bureau,Xiangtan 411100;Xiangtan County Meteorological Bureau,Xiangtan 411200)

机构地区：[1]湘潭市气象局,湘潭411100 [2]湘潭县气象局,湘潭411200

出　　处：《气象水文海洋仪器》2024年第6期59-62,共4页Meteorological,Hydrological and Marine Instruments

基　　金：湖南省气象局重点项目“湘潭涟水流域精细化降水预报研究”(XQKJ20A008)资助。

摘　　要：为了更好地开展气象干旱预报预测和应用服务,文章利用长株潭地区12个气象站点1970—2020年的逐日降水数据,基于RClimDex极端气候指数计算软件,采用一元线性回归、累积距平、M-K非参数检验、反距离权重等方法分析极端干旱事件的时空分布特征。结果表明:长株潭地区极端干旱呈逐年减轻态势,极端干旱最严重的年份是1979年,最轻的年份是2020年;在年代际分布上,2000年代极端干旱最严重,2010年代最轻;在空间分布上,湘潭、湘乡和茶陵是极端干旱最严重的区域;除株洲地区南部的炎陵和茶陵以0.04~0.05天/年的趋势偏向严重发展外,其他站点均呈减轻趋势;各站1970年代极端干旱偏轻,1970年代后期呈现明显的加重趋势,2010年代中期所有站点呈现明显减轻趋势;多数站点突变点不明显,仅宁乡1997年、长沙2008年、株洲1992年、韶山2014年出现下降突变点。In order to better carry out meteorological drought forecasting and application services,this article uses daily precipitation data from 12 meteorological stations in the Changsha,Zhuzhou,Xiangtan region from 1970 to 2020.Based on RClimDex extreme climate index calculation software.The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of extreme drought events are analyzed using methods such as univariate linear regression,cumulative anomaly,M-K nonparametric test,and inverse distance weight.The results indicate that extreme drought in the Chang-Zhu-Tan region has been decreasing year by year,with the most severe year being 1979 and the lightest year being 2020.In terms of interdecadal distribution,extreme drought was most severe in the 2000s and least severe in the 2010s.In terms of spatial distribution,Xiangtan,Xiangxiang and Chaling are the areas with the most severe extreme drought.Except for Yanling and Chaling in the southern part of Zhuzhou,which tend to develop severely at a rate of 0.04 to 0.05 days per year,all other stations show a decreasing trend.The extreme drought at each station was relatively mild in the 1970s,and showed a significant worsening trend in the late 1970s.In the mid 2010s,all stations showed a significant easing trend.Most sites have unclear mutation points,with only Ningxiang in 1997,Changsha in 2008,Zhuzhou in 1992,and Shaoshan in 2014 showing decreasing mutation points.

关 键 词：长株潭地区 CDD 极端干旱 分布特征 突变分析 

分 类 号：P716[天文地球—海洋科学]