灰色模型GM(1,1)及其改进模型在短期特殊日电力负荷预测中的应用  

Application of GM(1,1) improved model in the electric power load forecasting

作　　者：李鹰[1] 卢炎生[1] 蔡碧野[2] 黄道昌[2] 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学计算机学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]长沙电力学院,湖南长沙410077

出　　处：《桂林工学院学报》2002年第4期418-420,共3页Journal of Guilin University of Technology

摘　　要：讨论了灰色模型GM (1 ,1 )及其改进模型在短期电力负荷预测中的应用 ,采用ARI MA(p ,d ,q)模型与GM(1 ,1 )改进模型对特殊日电力负荷进行组合预测 ,提出了适合电网特殊日电力负荷预测的数据处理方法 ,提高了预测的精度 .准确度可达 95 %以上 ,解决了每日2 4点正点采样情况下预测精度较低的问题 .Electric power load forecasting is one of the important tasks in electric power control and operation.According to different forecasting objectives,the usual methods include probability statistics methods,time sequence analysis and grey system , etc .The application of grey model GM(1,1) and its improved model in the electric power load forecasting are presented, GM(1,1) improved model and ARIMA( p,d,q )model are used to combinately forecast the special daily power load.The mothod which is suitable for the forecasting data is found.Thus the precision of forecasting has been improved,which is better than 95%,and the problen of low accurate forecast has been solved.

关 键 词：电力负荷 灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 组合预测 数据处理 精度 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]