Weibull分布下二乘N取K系统的剩余寿命预测研究  

Research on Remaining Life Prediction of Two times N for K System under Weibull Distribution

作　　者：王昊 Wang Hao(State Key Laboratory of Chemical Safety,Shandong,Qingdao,266104;SINOPEC Research Institute of Safety Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Shandong,Qingdao,266104)

机构地区：[1]化学品安全全国重点实验室,山东青岛266104 [2]中石化安全工程研究院有限公司,山东青岛266104

出　　处：《安全、健康和环境》2024年第12期21-26,共6页Safety Health & Environment

摘　　要：石化装置的安全仪表系统中往往对仪表进行冗余布置以提高安全性和可靠性,然而目前对常见的二乘N取K冗余结构的仪表系统的研究较少。针对这一现状,提出了一种仪表服从Weibull分布情况下冗余系统的剩余寿命预测方法,通过三参数Weibull分布描述仪表寿命,并通过极大似然方法和遗传算法求解相关参数,然后基于二乘N取K系统的失效特点推导了冗余系统剩余寿命分布和期望,最后对二乘4取2冗余仪表的寿命开展了仿真实验。实验结果表明:所提出的方法对剩余寿命预测结果的MAPE为1.8%,可以为仪表维护计划的制定做支撑。In the safety instrument system of petrochemical plants,instruments are often redundantly arranged to improve safety and reliability.However,there is currently limited research on the commonly used two times N-to-K redundant structure of instrument systems.A residual life prediction method for redundant systems with instruments following Weibull distribution was proposed to address this situation.The instrument life was described using a three parameter Weibull distribution,and the relevant parameters were solved using maximum likelihood method and genetic algorithm.Then,based on the failure characteristics of the two times N for K system,the remaining life distribution and expectation of the redundant system were derived.Finally,simulation experiments were conducted on the life of the two times 4 for 2 redundant instrument.The experimental results showed that the proposed method had a MAPE of 18%for predicting the remaining life,which can provide support for the development of instrument maintenance plans.

关 键 词：安全仪表系统 二乘N取K系统 剩余寿命预测 WEIBULL分布 数学期望 

分 类 号：TE972[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]