无砟轨道高低不平顺季节性特征及预测  

Seasonal Characteristics and Prediction of Longitudinal Irregularity in Ballastless Track

作　　者：许玉德[1,2] 任泽琦 魏子龙 XU Yude;REN Zeqi;WEI Zilong(Key Laboratory of Road and Traffic Engineering of Ministry of Education,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;Shanghai Key Laboratory of Rail Infrastructure Durability and System Safety,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804,China;Infrastructure Inspection Research Institute,China Academy of Railway Sciences,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学道路与交通工程教育部重点实验室,上海201804 [2]同济大学上海市轨道交通结构耐久与系统安全重点实验室,上海201804 [3]中国铁道科学研究院集团有限公司基础设施检测研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《同济大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第1期91-98,共8页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划(P2021T013);国家重点研发计划(2022YFB2602900)。

摘　　要：为了解高速铁路无砟轨道高低不平顺的季节性特征,基于高速综合检测车实测数据,统计四季条件下CRTSⅠ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ型无砟轨道在不同类型区段的高低不平顺,并利用季节指数法定量评估季节变化对高低不平顺的影响。考虑季节性特征,利用季节指数调整的滑动平均模型,以及深度学习领域的LSTM模型,对CRTSⅢ型无砟轨道的高低不平顺进行预测。结果表明:CRTS系列无砟轨道高低不平顺具有明显的季节性,夏季高低不平顺值普遍高于其他季节。曲线区段高低不平顺受季节变化的影响大于直线区段,桥梁区段高低不平顺受季节变化的影响大于路基区段。季节指数调整的滑动平均模型和LSTM模型均可预测无砟轨道高低不平顺,其中LSTM模型的预测效果更佳。In an attempt to investigate the seasonal characteristics of longitudinal irregularity of the ballastless track in high-speed railways,this study utilized actual data collected from the high-speed comprehensive trains to analyze the longitudinal irregularity of China Railway Track System(CRTS)Ⅰ,Ⅱ,and Ⅲ ballastless tracks in different types of sections during the four seasons.The impact of seasonal changes on the longitudinal irregularity was quantitatively evaluated using the seasonal index.Considering the seasonal characteristics,a seasonal index adjusted moving average model,and a Long Short-Term Memory(LSTM)model in the field of deep learning were applied to predict the longitudinal irregularity of CRTS Ⅲ ballastless track.The results show that the longitudinal irregularity of CRTS series ballastless track has obvious seasonality,with higher values in the summer than in other seasons.The longitudinal irregularity of curved sections is more affected by seasonal changes than that of straight sections,while the longitudinal irregularity of bridge sections is more affected by seasonal changes than that of embankment sections.Both the seasonal index adjusted moving average model and the LSTM model can predict the longitudinal irregularity of ballastless track,with the latter showing better predictive performance.

关 键 词：无砟轨道 高低不平顺 季节性 季节指数 深度学习 预测模型 

分 类 号：U216[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]