学前教育扩张与育龄青年生育意愿  

Preschool Education Expansion and Fertility Intention of Young People of Childbearing Age

作　　者：解嘉祺 刘泽云[1] XIE Jia-qi;LIU Ze-yun(Business School,Beijing Normal University)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学经济与工商管理学院

出　　处：《教育经济评论》2024年第5期68-89,共22页China Economics of Education Review

摘　　要：在当前中国生育持续低迷的背景下,提升青年群体生育意愿是当务之急,缓解“工作—养育冲突”是生育支持政策体系构建的关键。本文考察了学前教育扩张政策对育龄青年生育意愿的影响。基于两期家庭决策模型的理论分析发现,学前教育扩张对家庭生育意愿的影响取决于两种相反的效应:时间释放效应与学前教育成本挤入效应,前者导致生育意愿提高,后者导致生育意愿下降。利用2010—2013年各地级市幼儿园数量增长率与CLDS2016个体微观数据的实证研究发现:时间释放效应占主导地位,学前教育扩张对育龄青年生育意愿有显著正向影响,该结论经一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立。文章建议,在如今人口新形势下加大幼儿教育公共服务供给应突出其照料作用,推动支持幼儿园开展托幼一体化服务,同时提升学前教育资源普惠水平,关注阶层差异性,这有利于提升儿童正式照料服务的可获得性,降低家庭负担,从而充分释放青年群体生育潜能,促进生育政策有效发挥,缓解当前生育低迷的状况。Under the current background of China's fertility downturn,it is urgent to improve the fertility willingness of young people,and to alleviate the“work-parenting conflict”is the key to the construction of fertility support policy system.This paper examines the effect of preschool education expansion policy on the reproductive intention of young people of childbearing age.The theoretical analysis based on the two-stage family decision model shows that the impact of preschool education expansion on family fertility intention depends on two opposite effects:the work or leisure release effect and the preschool education cost crowding effect,the former leads to the increase of fertility intention,the latter leads to the decrease of fertility intention.Based on the empirical study of the growth rate of kindergartens in prefecture-level cities from 2010 to 2013 and the individual microdata of CLDS2016,it is found that the release effect of work or leisure is dominant,and the expansion of preschool education has a significant positive impact on the reproductive intention of young people of childbearing age.This conclusion remains valid after a series of robustness tests.The article suggests that under the current new population situation,to increase the supply of public services for early childhood education,it should highlight its care role,promote support for kindergartens to carry out integrated care services,improve the inclusive level of preschool education resources,and pay attention to class differences,which will help improve the availability of formal care services for children,reduce the burden on families,and fully release the reproductive potential of young people.We will promote the effective implementation of the fertility policy and ease the current downturn in fertility.

关 键 词：学前教育扩张 生育意愿 儿童照料 教育成本 

分 类 号：G619.2[文化科学—学前教育学] D432.6[文化科学—教育学] C924.2[政治法律—政治学]