物证鉴定范式发展(四):形态特征主观似然比范式  

Forensic Paradigm Development.Part 4:Subjective LR Paradigm of Pattern Features

作　　者：王桂强 WANG Guiqiang(Institute of Forensic Science,Ministry of Public Security,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]公安部鉴定中心,北京100038

出　　处：《刑事技术》2025年第1期21-32,共12页Forensic Science and Technology

摘　　要：形态特征主观似然比范式是关于形态类物证特征结果证据意义解释的理论和方法。形态特征结果主观似然比(likelihood ratio,LR)通常是在分别代表控辩双方主张的两个对立命题条件下,基于专家知识或专家知识与数据组合分配的形态特征结果出现概率的比值。评估形态特征结果主观LR的命题层级包括来源层级和行为层级。形态特征结果主观LR表达了物证形态特征结果对控辩双方命题的相对支持方向和强度,为决策者确定有争议的命题事实提供定性的证据价值。决策者基于形态特征结果主观LR意见,或基于LR经贝叶斯定律导出的命题后概率,结合案件其他证据排除合理怀疑确定命题事实。形态特征主观LR范式在科学逻辑以及意见的形成、表述、理解和推理应用方面完全不同于我们已经习惯的传统范式,与DNA特征结果客观LR范式也存在一定差异。这给鉴定人和决策者提出了新的要求和挑战。The subjective likelihood ratio paradigm of pattern features is the theory and method for the interpretation of evidence significance of featurefindings of pattern evidence.Subjective likelihood ratio(LR)of pattern features is the probability ratio of occurrence of pattern features assigned under the two opposing propositions representing the prosecution and defense respectively,based on expert knowledge or the combination of expert knowledge and data.The proposition hierarchy for evaluating the subjective LR of pattern features includes source level and active level.Subjective LR of pattern features expresses the relative support direction and intensity of the pattern features findings for the propositions of the prosecution and defense,providing qualitative evidence value for decision makers to determine disputed factual propositions.Decision makers will determine the propositions facts based on subjective LR opinions of pattern features,or based on the posterior probabilities of the propositions derived from LR through Bayes’theorem,combined with other evidence in the case,in the way to exclude reasonable doubts.The subjective LR paradigm of pattern features differs significantly from the traditional paradigm we are accustomed to in terms of scientific logic and the formation,expression,understanding,and reasoning application of opinions,and it also differs from the objective LR paradigm of DNA feature.This presents new requirements and challenges for forensic examiner and decision-makers.

关 键 词：物证鉴定 形态特征 特征似然比 主观 范式 

分 类 号：DF794[政治法律—诉讼法学]