基于HMM-Viterbi算法的光伏发电预测研究  

Research on Photovoltaic Power Generation Forecasting Based on HMM-Viterbi Algorithm

作　　者：王岑海 薛军伟 柴江帆 Wang Cenhai;Xue Junwei;Chai Jiangfan(School of Electrical and Control Engineering,Liaoning Technical University,Huludao Liaoning 125105,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学电气与控制工程学院,辽宁葫芦岛125105

出　　处：《现代工业经济和信息化》2024年第10期119-121,共3页Modern Industrial Economy and Informationization

摘　　要：近年来,随着全球能源需求的快速增长,太阳能发电成为全球关注的热点之一,而光伏发电受气候环境和大气状况等因素影响,导致发电功率具随机性和波动性。基于此,构建了隐马尔可夫模型,采用维特比算法解码预测过程,预测了下一年的太阳能光伏发电功率,并以辽宁近年的光伏发电数据进行仿真,仿真结果具有较优的计算效率和准确性。In recent years,with the rapid growth of global energy demand,solar power generation has become one of the hotspots of global attention,and photovoltaic power generation is affected by factors such as climate environment and atmospheric conditions,which leads to stochastic and fluctuating power generation.Based on this,a Hidden Markov Model is constructed,and the Viterbi algorithm is used to decode the prediction process and predict the solar PV power in the next year,and the simulation is carried out with the PV power generation data of Liaoning in recent years,and the simulation results have superior computational efficiency and accuracy.

关 键 词：隐马尔可夫模型 VITERBI算法 光伏发电 功率预测 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]