防灾减灾视角下社区韧性评估与治理  

Assessment and governance of community resilience from the perspective of disaster prevention and mitigation

作　　者：孙莹 李小水[2] 王德运[1,3] 吕新彪[2] 郭海湘[1,3] SUN Ying;LI Xiaoshui;WANG Deyun;LV Xinbiao;GUO Haixiang(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Institute for Advanced Study,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China;Laboratory of Natural Disaster Risk Prevention and Emergency Management,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)高等研究院,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)自然灾害风险防控与应急管理实验室,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2025年第1期1-13,共13页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72274186);湖北省自然灾害综合风险评估项目(2022310031);湖北省自然科学基金联合基金项目(2022CFB128);湖北省社会科学基金一般项目(HBSKII20233263);陕西省应急管理研究院科学研究项目(2024SXYY01);国家社会科学基金项目(23AZD072);湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目(2024AFA015)。

摘　　要：社区是城市防灾减灾的最基本单元,建立社区复原力,提升社区韧性是城市应对自然灾害的关键举措。文中以武汉市江岸区为例,对社区韧性展开评估。首先,将社区韧性与防灾减灾能力相结合,从经济、社会、基础设施和组织4个维度出发,选取能够反映社区财政投入、物资储备、公众避险、自救互救、医疗保障、转移安置、隐患排查和风险管理8项减灾能力的25个指标构建评估体系。其次,考虑到指标权重对评估结果的影响,分别采用AHP-TOPSIS、熵权-TOPSIS以及组合赋权-TOPSIS这3种评估模型对辖区内147个社区的韧性进行评估,并从评估趋势、等级划分和排名情况等方面对比分析不同模型的差异。然后,选取区分度更大、可解释性更强的组合赋权-TOPSIS模型对不同韧性维度进行细粒度的分析。研究结果表明,该区整体韧性较强,基础设施和组织韧性相对较弱;在空间分布上,社区密集区域韧性等级高于社区分散区域,城市中心区域韧性等级高于边缘区域。最后,基于不同维度的评估结果,提出针对性的社区韧性治理建议,包括推动社区多元共治、优化布局、整合资源、共融共享以及构建数字化、智慧化社区等,为基层应急管理提供新的思路和参考。Community is the most basic unit of urban disaster prevention and mitigation.Establishing and enhancing community resilience are pivotal strategies for cities to effectively tackle natural disasters.This article takes Jiang an District in Wuhan City as an example and conducts an assessment of community resilience.Firstly,combining community resilience with disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities,we construct an evaluation system from four dimensions,including economy,society,infrastructure and organization.We select 25 indicators that reflect eight disaster reduction capabilities,including financial investment,material reserves,public evacuation,self-help and mutual assistance,medical support,relocation,hazard investigation and risk management.Secondly,considering the impact of indicator weights on evaluation results,three evaluation models,namely AHP-TOPSIS,EWM-TOPSIS and CWM-TOPSIS,were used to assess the resilience of 147 communities within the jurisdiction.The differences between different models were compared and analyzed from the aspects of evaluation trends,level division and ranking.Then,the CWM-TOPSIS model with stronger interpretability was selected to perform fine-grained evaluation of different resilience dimensions.The results show that the overall resilience of the area is strong,while economic resilience and social resilience are relatively weak.In terms of spatial distribution,resilience levels of densely populated areas are better than those of dispersed areas,and levels of urban central areas are better than those of peripheral areas.Finally,based on the evaluation results,suggestions for improving community resilience and governance were proposed,including promoting diverse community governance,optimizing layout,integrating resources,fostering inclusivity and sharing,as well as constructing digital and intelligent communities,which could provide new insights and references for grassroots social governance.

关 键 词：社区韧性 减灾能力 组合赋权 差异分析 韧性治理 

分 类 号：TU984.116[建筑科学—城市规划与设计] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]