基于GM(1,1)模型的海南省卫生人力资源发展预测分析  

A predictive analysis of health human resources development in Hainan Province based on GM(1,1)model

作　　者：任琴 农意扬 袁瑜琳 杨芳 张新花 REN Qin;NONG Yiyang;YUAN Yulin;YANG Fan;ZHANG Xinhua(School of Humanities and Social Sciences,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning,Guangxi 530021,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]广西医科大学人文社会科学学院,广西南宁530021 [2]广西医科大学信息与管理学院

出　　处：《中国农村卫生事业管理》2025年第1期64-69,共6页Chinese Rural Health Service Administration

基　　金：国家卫生健康委卫生发展研究中心委托课题(03302219011D)。

摘　　要：目的对海南省卫生人力资源配置进行现状分析及预测,为海南省卫生人力资源的优化配置提供依据。方法以2013—2022年海南省卫生人力资源为原始数据,利用GM(1,1)构建预测模型分析发展趋势。结果2013—2022年海南卫生人力资源配置逐年增加,每千人口卫生技术人员数、执业(助理)医师数、注册护士数的平均增长速度分别为4.87%、5.63%、5.98%;2022年医护比为1∶1.29,呈现先升后降的发展趋势;预测显示2023—2030年海南省每千人口卫生技术人员数、执业(助理)医师数、注册护士数的平均增长速度分别为5.19%、6.26%、6.04%,医护比降至1∶1.28。结论海南省卫生人力稳步增长,但学历层次偏低,职称结构不合理,注册护士增速变缓。相关部门应继续完善卫生人才培养机制,提升学历层次。重视护理行业的发展机制,提升医护比,以促进卫生事业持续发展。Objective To analyze the status quo of health human resources allocation in Hainan Province and to predict the future development,so as to provide basis for optimal allocation.Methods Based on the raw data of health human resources in Hainan Province from 2013 to 2022,GM(1,1)model was used to construct a prediction model for development trend analysis.Results From 2013 to 2022,the allocation of health human re-sources in Hainan increased year by year,and the average growth rates of the number of health technicians,li-censed(assistant)physicians and registered nurses per 1000 population were 487%,563%and 598%,re-spectively.In 2022,the ratio of physicians to nurses was 1∶129,showing a first-rising-and-then-falling develop-ment trend.The forecast indicated that from 2023 to 2030,the average growth rates of the number of health techni-cians,licensed(assistant)physicians,and registered nurses per 1000 population in Hainan Province would be 519%,626%,and 604%,respectively,and the ratio of physicians to nurses would drop to 1∶128.Con-clusions The health human resources in Hainan Province has grown steadily,but their level of education is rela-tively low,the structure of professional titles is improper,and the growth rate of registered nurses becomes weak.Relevant departments need to improve continuously the health personnel training mechanism and the academic qualifications of health resources,and attach great importance to the development mechanism of the nursing indus-try and improve the ratio of physicians to nurses to promote the sustainable development of health services.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 GM(1 1)模型 卫生人力资源 配置现状 预测分析 医护比 海南省 

分 类 号：R197[医药卫生—卫生事业管理]