低生育率下城乡学前教育资源供需潜力预测及统筹策略  

Forecasting the Supply and Demand Potential of Urban and Rural Preschool Education Resources and Coordination Strategies under Low Fertility Rates

作　　者：吕阳 郝秉钰 Lu Yang;HAO Bingyu(College of Teachers,Chengdu University,Chengdu,Sichuan 610106,China)

机构地区：[1]成都大学师范学院,成都610106

出　　处：《四川轻化工大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第1期115-128,共14页Journal of Sichuan University of Science & Engineering:Social Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家社会科学基金教育学项目(CFA220309)。

摘　　要：在低生育率和人口政策调整背景下,科学预测城乡学前教育资源的供需潜力,对优化学前教育资源配置和实现学前教育均衡发展至关重要。研究使用Leslie矩阵建立人口预测模型,以第七次人口普查数据为基年数据,运用队列要素法,综合考虑城镇化进程等因素,分城乡及高、中、低三种方案对2024—2035年出生人口进行预测。结果显示,全国高中低方案下未来学前教育在园幼儿的总数相比当前水平,呈现出明显的下降趋势,并随着在园幼儿规模不断萎缩,其所需专任教师、教职工、园所数、班数以及园舍面积均呈现下降趋势。面对学龄人口减少与城乡学前教育资源供需失调趋势,应建立常态化的人口监测预警机制;落实国家生师比标准,合理扩大学前教育师资规模,提高人才培养层次;深挖供需潜力,优化城乡学前教育资源的空间布局,完善统筹策略。Against the backdrop of low fertility rates and adjustments in population policies,scientifically forecasting the supply and demand potential of urban and rural preschool education resources is crucial for optimizing resource allocation and achieving balanced development.This study uses the Leslie matrix to establish a population prediction model,with the seventh census data as the base year,employing the cohort-component method and considering factors such as urbanization processes.Predictions for the birth population from 2024 to 2035 are made for urban and rural areas under high,medium,and low scenarios.The results show that under the national high,medium,and low scenarios,the total number of children in preschool education is projected to significantly decrease compared to current levels.As the preschool population continues to shrink,the demand for full-time teachers,staff,the number of schools,classes,and the area of school buildings also shows a downward trend.To address the decline in the school-age population and the imbalance between the supply and demand of urban and rural preschool education resources,a regular population monitoring and early warning mechanism should be established.The national teacher-student ratio standards should be implemented,the scale of preschool education teachers should be reasonably expanded,and the level of talent training should be improved.The potential supply and demand should be deeply explored,the spatial layout of urban and rural preschool education resources should be optimized,and coordination strategies should be improved.

关 键 词：Leslie模型 低生育率 学前教育 供需潜力 资源配置 

分 类 号：G61[文化科学—学前教育学] G47[文化科学—教育学]