碳交易试点政策减排效应实证评估及机制分析  

Empirical evaluation and mechanism analysis of domestic carbon trading pilot policies on emission reduction

作　　者：陈操操 于凤菊 张悦 刘耕源[2] 王新爽 郑恺昀 胡婧 王立波 宋丹 胡永锋 孙粉 孙大利 马宁 CHEN Cao-cao;YU Feng-ju;ZHANG Yue;LIU Geng-yuan;WANG Xin-shuang;ZHENG Kai-yun;HU Jing;WANG Li-bo;SONG Dan;HU Yong-feng;SUN Fen;SUN Da-li;MA Ning(Beijing Climate Change Management Centre,Beijing 100086,China;State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市应对气候变化管理事务中心,北京100086 [2]北京师范大学环境学院,环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100875

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2025年第3期1674-1685,共12页China Environmental Science

基　　金：北京市科技计划课题资助项目(Z221100005222027);国家自然科学基金资助项目(41001380,72073017)。

摘　　要：基于2000~2021年中国30个省级地区的面板数据,将碳交易政策视为准自然实验,利用多期双重差分方法系统评估了其对碳排放的影响.结果表明:引入碳交易政策后,试点地区碳总量下降13.2%,碳强度和人均碳排放分别下降21.3%和17.2%.受碳交易政策影响,试点地区碳强度显著降低,然而碳总量和人均排放影响不显著.碳交易减排主要依赖于产业结构改善,碳交易价格、市场活跃度和低碳技术的中介效应较弱.不同政策间可能存在互补和协同效应,尽管碳交易在推动碳减排发挥积极作用,但对SO_(2)、NO_(x)和PM_(2.5)的协同效果仍需提升.这些结果为理解碳交易政策提供了重要的实证支持,为完善碳交易制度,以及指导未来碳市场政策的调整和优化提供科学依据.This study utilizes panel data from 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2021.We treat the carbon trading policy as a quasi-natural experiment,and apply a multi-period difference-in-differences method to systematically evaluate its impact on carbon emissions.The results indicate that:after the introduction of the carbon trading policy,the total carbon emissions in the pilot regions decrease by 13.2%,while carbon intensity and per capita carbon emissions fall by 21.3%and 17.2%,respectively.The carbon trading policy significantly reduces carbon intensity in the pilot regions;however,the impacts on total carbon emissions and per capita emissions are not significant.Carbon reduction through trading primarily relies on improvements in industrial structure,with weaker mediation effects from carbon trading prices,market activity,and low-carbon technology.There may be complementary and synergistic effects among different policies.Although carbon trading plays a positive role in promoting carbon reduction,its synergistic effects on SO_(2),NO_(x)and PM_(2.5)still need to be enhanced.These results provide important empirical support for understanding carbon trading policies and offer a scientific basis for refining the carbon trading system as well as guiding future adjustments and optimizations of carbon market policies.

关 键 词：碳排放权交易 多期差分模型 环境效应 碳中和 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]