城市建成环境与道路交通运行关系  

Exploring relationship between urban built environment and road traffic performance

作　　者：年光跃 潘海啸[1] 孙健[2] NIAN Guang-yue;PAN Hai-xiao;SUN Jian(College of Architecture and Urban Planning,Tongji University,Shanghai 200092,China;School of Future Transportation,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710021,China)

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院,上海200092 [2]长安大学未来交通学院,西安710021

出　　处：《吉林大学学报(工学版)》2025年第1期141-149,共9页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金区域创新发展联合基金项目(U20A20330);上海同济城市规划设计研究院有限公司项目(KY-2016-ZD2-B01)。

摘　　要：为解决建成环境与道路交通运行之间的量化描述和解释问题,本文以路段平均行程速度表征交通运行状况,基于面板数据构建随机森林预测模型,以建成环境预测路段车速。结果表明:构建的随机森林预测模型表现出优秀的性能,道路交通运行与建成环境显著相关,并呈现多样化的非线性关系。本文研究弥补了先前相关研究中交通运行动态特性考虑不足、小范围片区研究偶然性偏差、非线性关系缺乏等问题,同时本文研究结果可为城市与交通规划、管理决策等提供支持。This study provides a quantitative analysis of the relationship between the built environment and road traffic performance.We define traffic performance by measuring average travel speeds on road segments and develop a random forest model using multi-source panel data to predict speeds based on built environment variables.The results demonstrate high predictive accuracy,revealing a significant correlation between road traffic performance and the built environment,characterized by complex non-linear relationships.Our work addresses three limitations in prior research:overlooking dynamic traffic performance characteristics;potential chance bias in small-area studies;and insufficient exploration of nonlinear relationships.These findings provide actionable insights for urban planners and policymakers to optimize transport infrastructure and management strategies.

关 键 词：城市交通 关联机理 随机森林 建成环境 行程速度 非线性关系 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]