我国教育项目支出预测研究——基于Theil不等系数的IOWHA算子  

Research on Predicting Expenditures of Educational Programs in China:IOWHA Operator Based on Theil's Inequality Coefficient

作　　者：兰甜甜 LAN Tiantian(Science&Research Department,Dalian Education University,Dalian,Liaoning 116021)

机构地区：[1]大连教育学院科研处,辽宁大连116021

出　　处：《大连教育学院学报》2025年第1期19-24,共6页Journal of Dalian Education University

摘　　要：教育是影响国家发展的重要因素,教育项目支出的预测也成为人们重点关注的话题。传统的单一预测方法的不足,使得对教育项目支出的预测精度与可靠性并不高。为了充分利用各单项方法的优点,将IOWHA算子与Theil不等系数相结合,建立新的预测模型。从理论推导的角度来看,组合模型优于单项模型是有效的。运用该组合预测模型以1998—2022年我国实际教育项目支出为研究样本,对我国“十五五”期间教育项目支出进行预测。结果表明,“十五五”期间我国教育项目支出将会进一步提高,年增长率基本稳定在6.7%左右,也表明我国的教育事业在蓬勃发展。Education is an important factor affecting the development of the country,and the prediction of educational program expenditures has become a key concern.However,the shortcomings of the traditional single-item methods account to the lower prediction accuracy and reliability of the educational program expenditures.In order to make full use of the advantages of each single-item method,this paper combines the IOWHA operator with the Theil's inequality coefficients,and establishes a new prediction model.The constructed model,which is better than the single-item model,is effective from the point of view of theoretical derivation.In this paper,the combined prediction model is applied to predicting China's educational program expenditures during the 15th Five-Year Plan period with China's actual educational program expenditures from 1998 to 2022 as a research sample.The results show that China's educational program expenditure will further increase during the 15th Five-Year Plan period,and the annual growth rate is basically stabilized at about 6.7%,which also indicates that China's education is developing vigorously.

关 键 词：组合预测 Theil不等系数 IOWHA算子 教育项目 

分 类 号：G467.2[文化科学—教育学]