基于平急双态-二维云模型的高原高寒地区地震应急协同能力评价  

Evaluation of earthquake emergency coordination capacity in highland and alpine areas based on normal-emergency-state and two-dimensional cloud model

作　　者：何欣宇 郭海湘 刘雅凝[1,2] 石咏 王墩 窦杰 HE Xinyu;GUO Haixiang;LIU Yaning;SHI Yong;WANG Dun;DOU Jie(School of Economics and Management,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430078,China;Institute for Natural Disaster Risk Prevention and Emergency Management,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;School of Earth Sciences,China University of Geosciences(Wuhan),Wuhan 430074,China;Badong National Observation and Research Station of Geohazards,Wuhan 430074,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430078 [2]中国地质大学(武汉)自然灾害风险防控与应急管理实验室,湖北武汉430074 [3]中国地质大学(武汉)地球科学学院,湖北武汉430074 [4]湖北巴东地质灾害国家野外科学观测研究站,湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2025年第2期76-88,共13页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(23AZD072);湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目(2024AFA015)。

摘　　要：在高原高寒地区,地震活动频繁且破坏性强,提升区域内地震应急协同能力是增强灾害响应与应急能力的关键环节。因此,需要有效、准确、科学地评价各时段各状态下各行业、各部门的应急协同能力。首先,基于文献资料和实地调研,从应急组织、指挥决策、生命救援、事故处置和应急保障5个维度构建了高原高寒地区地震应急协同能力评价指标体系;然后,构建了基于平急双态-二维云模型的高原高寒地区地震应急协同能力评价模型;最后,以2025年西藏日喀则市定日县6.8级地震为例,采用熵权法计算各指标权重,运用二维云判定平时和急时各指标云和标准云的贴近度及综合评价等级,揭示现有地震应急协同的不足与短板,并提出相应的改进思路和政策建议,为提升高原高寒地区平时和急时地震应急协同能力提供科学支撑。结果表明:西藏定日县地震应急协同能力平时状态等级为“良”,急时状态等级为“优”,平急双态等级为“优”;在此次地震应急响应中,指挥决策的高效协同表现最好,但在协同联动机制、信息数据共享平台、应急预案协同、高原病紧急救治、专业救援队伍协同等方面的协同能力仍存在明显不足,亟待提升和改进。Earthquakes occur frequently and are highly destructive in highland and alpine regions and improving their earthquake emergency response coordination capacity is a key aspect of enhancing emergency response capabilities.Therefore,it is necessary to effectively,accurately and scientifically evaluate the emergency response synergistic capacity of various industries and sectors under normal or emergency situation.Firstly,based on literature and field research,the evaluation index system of earthquake emergency response coordination capacity in plateau and alpine areas was constructed from five dimensions,namely,emergency organisation,command and decision-making,life rescue,accident disposal and emergency protection.Then,the evaluation model of seismic emergency response coordination capacity in plateau alpine regions considering the flat emergency dual time period-two-dimensional cloud model was constructed.Finally,taking the 6.8 magnitude earthquake in Dingri County,Rikaze City,Xizang as an example,the entropy weight method was used to calculate the weights of each index,and the two-dimensional cloud was used to determine the proximity of the index cloud and the standard cloud in normal time and emergency time as well as the comprehensive evaluation level,so as to depict the deficiencies and short boards of the existing seismic emergency response coordination,and to put forward the corresponding ideas for improvement and policy recommendations,so as to provide scientific support for enhancing the normal time and emergency time seismic emergency response coordination capacity of the plateau alpine region.The results show that the earthquake emergency response coordination capacity of Dingri County,Xizang,is rated as“good”in the normal state,“excellent”in the emergency state,and“excellent”in the dual state of normal and emergency.Efficient coordination in command and decision-making is the best performance in this earthquake.However,there is poor coordination in such areas as the coordination mechanism,in

关 键 词：高原高寒地区 地震 应急协同能力 平急双态 二维云模型 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X913