基于CART的高速公路差异化收费政策实施研究  

Implementation analysis of differentiated toll policies on tollways based on CART

作　　者：黄海博 马晓晖 张蓓 苏媛 韩宝睿[1] 李根 HUANG Haibo;MA Xiaohui;ZHANG Bei;SU Yuan;HAN Baorui;LI Gen(School of Automobile and Traffic Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037,China;Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region Highway and Waterway Development Center,Yinchuan 750000,China;Shanghai Mingshu Data Technology Co.,Ltd.,Shanghai 200000,China)

机构地区：[1]南京林业大学汽车与交通工程学院,南京210037 [2]宁夏回族自治区公路水路发展中心,银川750000 [3]上海明树数据科技有限公司,上海200000

出　　处：《黑龙江工程学院学报》2025年第2期44-51,共8页Journal of Heilongjiang Institute of Technology

摘　　要：为解决高速公路货车差异化收费政策实施条件不明确的问题,构建差异化收费背景下货车出行路径决策的分类与回归树模型,针对决策树结果设置“if-then”规则提取选择高速的货车司机特征,结合甘肃省高速公路货车司机出行实例给出一种直观的判断方法。结果表明:在模型性能方面,CART模型在准确率、预测精度、召回率、F_(1)分数、AUC等评估指标上均优于逻辑回归模型;在模型解释方面,CART模型给出货车司机出行决策的风险因素重要性排名;设置的“if-then”规则提取了6类倾向选择高速出行的货车司机特征,并根据这6类特征给出差异化收费政策实施的判断条件。研究结果有助于高速公路管理人员直观定位受差异化收费政策影响敏感的货车司机人群,明确实施差异化收费政策的条件。To address the ambiguity in the implementation conditions of differential toll policies for tollway freight trucks,a Classification And Regression Tree(CART)model is constructed to guide freight truck route decision-making under the background of differential tolls.This model utilizes“if-then”rules derived from decision tree results to extract features of truck drivers who opt for tollways.Combining instances of freight truck driver travel in Gansu Province's tollways,an intuitive method for judgment is provided.Results indicate that the CART model outperforms the logistic regression model across various evaluation metrics including accuracy,precision,recall,score,and AUC.In terms of model interpretation,the CART model ranks the importance of risk factors in freight truck driver travel decisions.The established“if-then”rules identify six types of truck driver characteristics inclined towards choosing tollway travel.Moreover,based on these six categories of features,criteria for the implementation of differential toll policies are provided.The research findings facilitate tollway management personnel in effectively identifying truck driver populations sensitive to the impact of differential toll policies,thereby clarifying the conditions for implementing such policies.

关 键 词：交通政策 货车出行路径决策 分类与回归树 机器学习模型 “if-then”规则 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]