基于船舶动态群组的复杂通航水域碰撞风险评估  

Collision risk assessment for complex navigable waters based on ship dynamic cluster

作　　者：刘克中[1,2,3] 俞月蓉 庄素婕 周阳[1,2,3] 袁志涛[1,2,3] 杨星[1,2] 辛旭日[1] LIU Ke-zhong;YU Yue-rong;ZHUANG Su-jie;ZHOU Yang;YUAN Zhi-tao;YANG Xing;XIN Xu-ri(School of Navigation,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,Hubei,China;Hubei Key Laboratory of Inland Shipping Technology,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,Hubei,China;State Key Laboratory of Maritime Technology and Safety,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan 430063,Hubei,China;Zhejiang Xindao Digital Technology Co.,Ltd.,Zhoushan 316000,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉理工大学航运学院,湖北武汉430063 [2]武汉理工大学内河航运技术湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430063 [3]武汉理工大学水路交通控制全国重点实验室,湖北武汉430063 [4]浙江芯岛数字科技有限公司,浙江舟山316000

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2025年第1期145-159,共15页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52031009)。

摘　　要：针对复杂通航水域船舶碰撞风险感知时空精细度不足、动态实时性不强等问题,提出了基于船舶动态群组的碰撞风险评估框架;在船舶轨迹数据预处理的基础上,构建了复杂通航水域船舶交通拓扑网络模型,表征区域内船舶碰撞风险的相互作用关系;考虑船舶动态时空变化特性,引入了谱聚类算法进行交通划分,界定船舶动态群组,并通过Davies-Bouldin指数进一步优化船舶动态群组划分策略;基于图论知识,引入船间干扰复杂度量化指标,建立了船舶动态群组风险评估方法,辨识复杂通航水域内船舶碰撞高风险区域;选取典型复杂通航水域——宁波-舟山港核心港区开展研究,采集该水域1个月的船舶交通流数据,评估了多船会遇场景下船舶碰撞风险状态。研究结果表明:通过自适应确定船舶动态群组划分方法,将水域内船舶划分为若干群组,简化船舶碰撞风险关系,同时保留全局范围内最主要的碰撞风险;所提船舶碰撞风险评估方法可保留全局84.98%的风险,与传统基于距离的聚类算法、K-means、层次聚类、带噪声的基于密度的空间聚类(DBSCAN)算法等经典聚类算法相比,本文方法的保留风险值更大,并可以减少不必要的风险关系,在精度、群组紧凑性、尺度均衡性上综合效果最优,可有效降低虚警率、离散区域整体风险;进一步利用所提风险评估方法对8640个的多船会遇场景的风险状态进行叠加计算,识别出的港区高风险区域与实际调研情况相符。To address the challenges of insufficient spatial-temporal granularity and limited real-time dynamics in perceiving collision risk within complex navigable waters,a collision risk assessment framework based on ship dynamic clusters was developed.After preprocessing of ship trajectory data,a ship traffic topology network model for complex navigable waters was constructed to depict the interplay of ship collision risk within the region.By taking into account the dynamic spatial-temporal characteristics of ships,the spectral clustering algorithm was introduced for traffic segmentation,defining ship dynamic clusters.Further optimization of the ship dynamic cluster partitioning strategy was performed through the Davies-Bouldin index.Based on the graph theory,measures for ship interference complexity were introduced to establish a ship dynamic cluster risk assessment method,discerning high-risk collision areas within the complex navigable waters.A study was conducted on a representative complex navigable waters,the core port area of Ningbo-Zhoushan Port,where one-month ship traffic flow data was collected to assess ship collision risk under multi-ship encounter scenarios.Research results show that the proposed adaptive method for ship dynamic cluster partitioning effectively divides ships within navigable waters into several clusters.This approach simplifies ship-to-ship collision risk relationship,while retaining the most critical collision risk across the entire spatial scope.The proposed ship collision risk assesment method preserves 84.98% of the global risk.Compared to traditional distance-based clustering algorithm and other classical clustering algorithms such as K-means,hierarchical clustering,and density-based spatial clustering of applications with noise(DBSCAN),the proposed method has a larger retained risk value and can reduce unnecessary risk relationships.It achieves optimal comprehensive performance in terms of accuracy,cluster compactness,and scale balance,effectively reducing false positive rates and d

关 键 词：水路运输 船舶碰撞风险 谱聚类 船舶动态群组 拓扑网络 多船会遇 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]