长三角地区碳排放驱动因素及脱钩分析  

Analysis of Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions and Decoupling in the Yangtze River Delta Region

作　　者：赵鑫宇 张庭婷[2] 谢晓敏[2,3] 彭寅章 赵启 ZHAO Xinyu;ZHANG Tingting;XIE Xiaomin;PENG Yinzhang;ZHAO Qi(China-UK Low Carbon College,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 201306,China;Research Institute of Carbon Neutrality,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200030,China;School of Mechanical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China;Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Xinjiang Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Urumqi 830013,China)

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学中英国际低碳学院,上海201306 [2]上海交通大学碳中和发展研究院,上海200030 [3]上海交通大学机械与动力工程学院,上海200240 [4]国网新疆电力有限公司电力科学研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830013

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2025年第4期767-776,共10页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：中国工程科技发展战略上海研究院项目(No.22692114700);上海交通大学-国家电投未来能源基金项目(No.110001JX0120220473);国家电网公司总部科技项目(No.5108-202218280A-2-74-XG)。

摘　　要：长三角地区作为中国最具经济活力和发展潜力的区域之一,对其碳排放与经济增长、能源消费之间的脱钩关系及相关驱动因素开展深入研究,不仅有助于推进该地区的低碳转型,同时也可为全国实现“双碳”目标提供重要支持。本文使用Tapio脱钩模型分析2000−2021年长三角地区能源消费、经济增长与碳排放之间的关系,并基于对数平均迪氏指数(LMDI)分解方法,在传统分解的基础上引入政策因素,区分政府和市场在低碳转型中的作用,探讨长三角地区碳排放的驱动因素及其影响程度。结果表明:①长三角地区碳排放在经济增长和能源消费方面呈现出不同程度的脱钩现象,其中,上海市表现出较强的脱钩状态,其他三省份则在不同时段内呈现出增长连接或弱脱钩状态。②经济发展效应是推动碳排放增长的主要因素,其贡献率为255.13%;财政减排效应是抑制碳排放增长的关键因素,其贡献率为−201.58%。产业结构效应、人口效应、能源结构效应和碳强度效应也发挥了重要的减排作用。③各驱动因素对长三角地区碳排放的影响在时空上存在显著差异。研究显示,长三角地区碳排放与经济增长、能源消费逐渐走向脱钩,经济发展效应和财政减排效应是影响碳排放的关键驱动因素。As one of the regions with the most vibrant economy and the greatest development potential in China,conducting in-depth research on the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions,economic growth,and energy consumption and related driving factors in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)will not only promote the region′s low-carbon transformation,but also provide crucial support for the whole country to achieve the goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.This article uses the Tapio decoupling model to analyze the relationships between energy consumption,economic growth,and carbon emissions in the YRD from 2000 to 2021.Based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index(LMDI)decomposition method,policy factors are introduced on the basis of traditional decomposition to distinguish the roles of the government and market forces in the low-carbon transformation,and to explore the driving factors of carbon emissions in the YRD and their influence degrees.The results show that:(1)Carbon emissions in the YRD exhibit varying degrees of decoupling in relation to economic growth and energy consumption.Among them,Shanghai shows a relatively strong decoupling state,while the other provinces show growth-link or weak decoupling states at different periods.(2)The economic development effect is the main factor driving the growth of carbon emissions,with a contribution rate of 255.13%.The fiscal emission reduction effect is the key factor restraining the growth of carbon emissions,with a contribution rate of−201.58%.The industrial structure,population,energy structure,and carbon intensity effects also play an important role in emission reduction.(3)There are significant spatiotemporal differences in the impact of various driving factors on carbon emissions in the YRD.The research indicates that carbon emissions in the YRD are gradually decoupling from economic growth and energy consumption,with the economic development effect and fiscal emission reduction effect being the key drivers influencing carbon emissions.

关 键 词：碳排放 LMDI分解 脱钩分析 长三角地区 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学] TK-9[动力工程及工程热物理]