家庭教育期望与女性二孩生育意愿——基于2018年中国家庭追踪调查数据的实证分析  

Family Education Expectation and Women's Desire to Have a Second Child:Empirical Analysis Based on the Data from 2018 China Family Panel Studies

作　　者：晏月平 张舒贤 YAN Yueping;ZHANG Shuxian(School of Ethnology and Sociology,Yunnan University,Kunming,Yunnan,China 650091)

机构地区：[1]云南大学民族学与社会学学院,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《昆明学院学报》2025年第2期34-44,共11页Journal of Kunming University

基　　金：国家社科基金后期项目“中国与‘一带一路’沿线国家人口问题、经济增长比较研究”(21FRKB001);云南省哲学社会科学规划项目“云南省生育意愿与生育支持政策实践研究”(YB2023042);云南省教育厅科学研究基金资助项目“乡村振兴视域下云南人才振兴赋能农户增收的实践路径研究”(2025Y0192)。

摘　　要：总和生育率的逐年走低,使我国人口长期均衡发展面临诸多挑战,并且随着社会发展人们越来越重视子女教育。在此背景下,文章使用CFPS2018年数据,采用二元Logit回归分析讨论家庭教育期望对女性二孩生育意愿的影响。研究发现:第一,家庭教育期望对育龄女性二孩生育意愿具有显著的抑制效应,即家庭教育期望越高,育龄女性的二孩生育意愿越低;第二,家庭教育期望对女性二孩生育意愿的影响,在年龄、女性受教育程度、户口和所属调查地区上存在异质性。基于此,文章从提供多样化的教育选择和优质均衡教育服务,推进家庭、学校和社会教育形成合力,缓解父母教育焦虑,完善与健全育儿支持体系等方面提出缓解家庭教育期望对女性二孩生育意愿负向影响的启示与建议,使女性不会由于过度关注孩子质量而抑制生育意愿与实际生育行为。With the decrease of total fertility rate year by year,the long-term balanced development of China's population faces many challenges,and with the development of society,people pay more and more attention to children's education.In this context,this paper uses data from CFPS 2018 and binary Logit regression analysis to discuss the impact of family education expectations on women's willingness to have a second child.The findings are that at first,the expectation of family education has a significant inhibitory effect on the intention of women of childbearing age to have a second child,and that is,the higher the expectation of family education is,the lower the intention of women of childbearing age to have a second child is;secondly,the influence of family education expectation on women's willingness to have a second child is heterogeneous in terms of age,women's education level,household registration and the survey region.Based on this,from the diversified perspective such as providing education choices and high-quality balanced education services,pushing families,schools and social education to form a joint force to alleviate parents'educational anxiety,improving and perfecting a sound parenting support system in the article,countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to alleviate the negative impact of family education expectations on women's willingness to have a second child,so that women's fertility intentions and actual fertility behavior are not restrained due to excessive attention to the quality of their children.

关 键 词：教育期望 二孩生育意愿 育龄女性 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学] G78[文化科学—教育学]