考虑风险因子的港口船舶碰撞风险预警仿真  

Early Warning Simulation of Port Ship Collision Risk Considering Risk Factors

作　　者：邵攀 温永瑞 任思帅 SHAO Pan;WEN Yong-rui;REN Si-shuai(China Waterborne Transport Research Institute,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部水运科学研究所,北京100088

出　　处：《计算机仿真》2025年第3期199-202,398,共5页Computer Simulation

基　　金：内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(2022YFSHO0019);中国特种设备检测研究院青年基金项目(2021青年16)。

摘　　要：为了提高港口航运安全性,降低事故发生率,提出一种模糊逻辑下港口水域船舶碰撞风险预警算法。采用模糊故障树分析方法筛选船舶碰撞风险因素,获取各个基本事件的模糊重要度信息,确定风险因子。以获取的风险因子作为基础,组建港口水域船舶碰撞推理规则以及模糊推理机,实现输入变量与输出变量之间的模糊逻辑推断。通过去模糊化处理获取港口水域船舶碰撞风险值,完成港口水域船舶碰撞风险预警。实验结果表明,所提算法可以有效提升港口水域船舶碰撞风险预警结果的准确性,说明其可以应用于船舶航行的安全监管领域中。In order to improve the safety of port shipping and reduce the accident rate,an early warning algorithm of ship collision risk in port waters based on fuzzy logic is proposed.The fuzzy fault tree analysis method is used to screen the risk factors of ship collision,obtain the fuzzy importance information of each basic event and determine the risk factors.Based on the obtained risk factors,the inference rules and fuzzy inference machine of ship collision in port waters are established to realize fuzzy logic inference between input variables and output variables.Through deblurring,the risk value of ship collision in port waters is obtained,and the early warning of ship collision risk in port waters is completed.The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can effectively improve the accuracy of the early warning results of ship collision risk in port waters,which shows that it can be applied to the safety supervision field of ship navigation.

关 键 词：模糊逻辑 港口水域 船舶碰撞 风险预警 模糊故障树 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]