不同降水情景下黄河河南段水质预测分析  

Prediction and analysis of water quality in the southern section of the Yellow River under different precipitation scenarios

作　　者：陶理 杨超慧 冯家成 姚有智 吴康 TAO Li;YANG Chaohui;FENG Jiacheng;YAO Youzhi;WU Kang(School of Materials Engineering,Wuhu Institute of Technology,Wuhu Anhui 241000 China;Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou Henan 450003,China;Anhui Wuhu Ecological Environment Monitoring Center,Wuhu Anhui 241000,China)

机构地区：[1]芜湖职业技术学院材料工程学院,安徽芜湖241000 [2]黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司,河南郑州450003 [3]安徽省芜湖生态环境监测中心,安徽芜湖241000

出　　处：《河北环境工程学院学报》2025年第2期83-89,共7页Journal of Hebei University of Environmental Engineering

基　　金：2024年度安徽省高校科学研究项目(2024AH040254);2023年芜湖市技术研发中心项目(WHSYFZX202307);“双碳”及储能科技创新团队项目(Wzykytd202205)。

摘　　要：以2021—2023年黄河河南段逐月水质与降水监测数据为基础,采用自回归差分移动平均模型(ARIMA)分析降水变化情景。结果表明:所采用的ARIMA(24,1,0)模型预测值与监测值的MRE均值为12.45%,RE小于10%占比为67.22%,总体趋势吻合度较高,能够有效快速地预测黄河河南段水质;模型预测结果显示,2024年长江芜湖段溶解氧(DO)仍会呈现出冬季升高、夏季降低的变化趋势,氮磷等营养物质浓度无明显波动规律;基于不同降水情景下的水质变化响应分析,黄河河南段氮磷等营养物质浓度对降水量的响应明显,有机物质浓度随着降水量的增加而上升。The water environment quality of the southern section of the Yellow River, which is the transitional section from the mountain area to the plain, has been paid much attention. Based on the monthly monitoring data of water quality and precipitation in the southern section of the Yellow River from 2021 to 2023, this paper analyzes the annual precipitation change scenarios in the past three years, and establishes an autoregressive differential moving average model(ARIMA). The results show that: The mean MRE of the ARIMA(24,1,0) model is 12.45%, and the proportion of RE less than 10% is 67.22%. The general trend is in good agreement, which can effectively and quickly predict the water quality of the southern section of the Yellow River. Model prediction shows that dissolved oxygen(DO) in Wuhu section of the Yangtze River will still show a trend of increasing in winter and decreasing in summer in 2024, and the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus and other nutrients will not fluctuate significantly. Based on the response analysis of water quality changes under different precipitation scenarios, the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus and other nutrients in the southern section of the Yellow River significantly responded to precipitation, and the concentration of organic matter increased with the increase of precipitation. The ARIMA model can be used to predict and analyze the water quality of the southern section of the Yellow River under different precipitation scenarios, which provides strong support for the water environment planning and management of the Yellow River basin.

关 键 词：黄河河南段 ARIMA模型 水质预测 降水情景 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]