人口安全视角下的基础教育资源配置优化  

Optimization of Basic Education Resources Allocation from the Perspective of Population Security

作　　者：周亚 曾杨[4] 黄嘉辉 ZHOU Ya;ZENG Yang;HUANG Jiahui

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学系统科学学院 [2]北京师范大学人才人事处 [3]北京师范大学 [4]中国国际技术智力合作集团有限公司

出　　处：《社会治理》2025年第2期30-42,共13页Social Governance Review

基　　金：国家社会科学基金教育学重点项目“教育经费投入的可持续性及合理分配研究”(编号:AFA220025)阶段性成果。

摘　　要：人口安全在国家安全中具有基础性、战略性地位。本研究基于人口安全视角,聚焦教育资源配置优化问题,构建集成人口、经济与教育系统的分析框架。重点探讨学龄人口变动对教育资源的影响机制。创新性地将教育资源配置转化为最优控制问题,以生均资源状态为评价指标,提出动态调整策略。研究发现:未来的教育需求将呈现多元化格局,资源过剩与学位短缺的现象将并存,基于人口变动的教育资源配置预警机制亟待建立;决策者的配置理念需要转变,不能只考虑满足当前的教育需求,需更多关注教育需求的动态变化,在权衡更大时间尺度内的教育质量和社会成本的基础上,进行前瞻性的应对。揭示了多系统协同下的教育资源配置规律,为建立基于人口变动的教育资源配置预警机制提供决策支持。Population security occupies a foundational and strategic position within national security.Based on the perspective of population security,this study focuses on optimizing the allocation of educational resources and develops an analytical framework that integrates the population,economic,and educational systems.It specifically investigates the impact mechanism of fluctuations in the school-age population on the distribution of educational resources.This study innovatively formulates the allocation of educational resources as an optimal control problem,utilizing per-student resource status as an evaluation indicator while proposing dynamic adjustment strategies.Key findings include:(1)Future educational demands are expected to exhibit a diversified pattern,the phenomenon of excessive resources and shortage of degrees will coexist.There is an urgent need to establish an early warning mechanism for educational resource allocation based on population dynamics;(2)Decision-makers must shift from a short-term focus to a forward-looking mindset,going beyond merely meeting current educational needs and instead emphasizing the dynamic evolution of these needs over time.By balancing educational quality with social costs across a broader temporal horizon,they can develop proactive strategies for resource planning.This study elucidates the principles underlying educational resource allocation within a multi-system coordination framework,providing practical decision support for establishing a population-based early warning mechanism for educational resource allocation while highlighting its practical application value.

关 键 词：人口安全 教育资源配置 预警机制 优化控制 

分 类 号：G40-058[文化科学—教育学原理]