愿翁文波院士的预测事业能继续发展  

Cherishing the memory of Academician WENG Wen-bo and developing his cause of Forecasting Science

作　　者：田在艺[1] 徐旺[2] 张传淦 张清[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院 [2]中国石油勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《石油勘探与开发》2002年第6期105-106,共2页Petroleum Exploration and Development

摘　　要：翁文波院士辞世已 8年 ,深切缅怀他的创新精神和重要贡献。翁老开创性的预测理论 2 0多年来在天灾、社会经济等多领域和油气产量、储量预测等方面的预测效果显著。在翁老进一步把预测论发展为预测运筹学、评估学的研究的关键时刻 ,病魔使他难以为继。希望翁老开创的当代预测事业能继续发展。Academician WENG Wen bo passed away eight years ago; the authors of this paper dearly cherish the memory of his spirit of bringing forth new ideas and significant contributions to the Forecasting Theory. It had been over 20 years since Academician WENG pioneered the Forecasting Theory. For over 20 years, the Forecasting Theory has been applied to the forecast of natural disaster, society economic benefit, oil production capacity and reserves and so on, and achieved the notable forecast results. However, it was at crucial moment that Academician WENG was further developing his theory from his Forecasting Theory into Forecast Operational Research and Evaluation Research, he, unfortunately, departed from the world forever in November 1994 and left his unfinished research to later generations. The authors of this paper wished that the Forecasting Theory pioneered by Academician WENG could be continuously developed.

关 键 词：翁文波 预测事业 信息预测 可公度性 浮动频率 预测运筹学 自然灾害 灾害学 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P43[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]