可持续发展目标下环境——社会经济(Ev-SEc )复合系统评价预测指标体系  

Ev-SEc Compound System Guided by Sustainable Development Strategy

作　　者：欧阳洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学管理学院,广州510275

出　　处：《城市环境与城市生态》2003年第1期55-58,共4页Urban Environment & Urban Ecology

基　　金：广州市科委重点软科学项目研究成果

摘　　要：对国内外"环境———社会经济"(EV-SEC)复合系统已有的评价预测指标体系研究进行了简要的评述,从(EV-SEC)复合系统发展要求的代际公平的角度出发,重新构建了充分体现可持续发展目标下(EV-SEC)复合系统发展的协调性及持久性特征,动态整合(EV-SEC)复合系统可持续发展的科学内涵,且多因素相容、质量和水平并列,方向和大小并存、时间和空间交叉的立体的全方位的评价预测指标体系框架,从而实现了可持续发展主题思想下各类松散描述指标的合理聚合。并将该新的评价预测指标体系用于广州市(EV-SEC)复合系统可持续发展状况的实际仿真评价预测及时空比较,得出的广州市(EV-SEC)复合系统可持续发展状况目前为弱可持续发展的评价结论,且预测未来正在呈现由弱可持续发展逐渐向强可持续发展过渡的动态变化趋势。The paper presents a brief account and evaluation of existing index system of assessment and prediction in the compound system available both abroad and in China. Starting from the intergeneration fairness required by the development of the compound system of Ev-SEc, this study has re-constructed the harmony and endurance of the compound system development guided by the goals of sustainable development and the scientific connotation of sustainable development of the Ev-SEc dynamic integration. An omnibearing framework of assessment and prediction system is dealt with in the paper that takes into account interwoven factors, varied emphasis on quality and level, coexisting of direction and size, and the intersection of time-space, thus achieving a dynamic polymerization of these seemingly loose descriptive indexes with the guidance of sustainable development strategy. The newly introduced assessment and prediction index system has witnessed its application to the simulated assessment and prediction and the time-space comparison in Guangzhou's sustainable development strategy It is concluded that sustainable growth of the compound Ev-SEc system in Guangzhou is rather weak and a dynamic trend of sustainable development from weak to strong is waiting ahead.

关 键 词：“环境-社会经济”复合系统 可持续发展 评价预测 动态整合 指标体系 

分 类 号：X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]