关中盆地地-气系统灾变的节律性及耦合关系  

Rhythm and coupling relation of lithosphere and atmosphere system disasters in Guanzhong Basin

作　　者：孙根年[1] 黄春长[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安710062

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2003年第4期40-46,共7页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(40071006)

摘　　要：依据丰富而系统的历史资料,建立了关中盆地历史地震与旱涝灾害两个数据库,分析了近2000a来地-气系统环境灾变的节律性及耦合关系。结果发现:(1)地震活动具有一定的节律性,并先后经历了3个平静期和3个活跃期,平静期与活跃期呈交替出现,具有3～4个世纪的周期;(2)较为严重的干旱、洪涝灾害亦具有一定的周期性,先后经历了2个洪涝期和3个干旱期,其较长尺度的转换周期亦为3～4个世纪;(3)在世纪尺度上,地震活动与旱涝灾害具有某种耦合关系,表现为在地震活动的活跃期,旱涝灾害呈多发性,而在地震活动的平静期,旱涝灾害较为稀少;(4)以较大级别的地震群发为节点,地气系统环境灾变的耦合关系具有先旱→后震→再涝的演替特征。基于上述事实,提出了一个地-气系统环境灾变的概念模型,对地震与旱涝灾害的耦合关系给出了确定性解释,为关中盆地世纪尺度的环境灾变群发性预测提供了新的依据。Using abundant and systematic historical data, this paper established two databases respectively for historical earthquake and droughtflood disaster in Guanzhong Basin, and analysed the rhythm and coupling relationship between lithosphere and atmosphere system disasters for last 2000a. The result shows as follows: (1) the earthquake disaster has rhythm in century scale, it was experienced with 3 quiet periods and 3 active periods, and they happened alternatively with a period of 3～4 centuries ; (2) more serious droughtfloods have the cyclic habitude of century scale yet, 2 flood periods and 3 drought periods gone through, the longer alternating period is about 3～4 centuries yet; (3) the earthquake activity and droughtflood disaster have some coupling relationship in century scale, in activie periods of earthquake disaster, the more of drought and flood take place, in quiet periods of earthquake disaster, the less drought and flood take place; (4) taking higher level earthquakes cluster happened as node, the coupling relationship between lithosphere and atmosphere system disasters has alternating characteristic of beginning drought, then earthquake and last flood. Based on above facts, this article established a concept model for coupling relationship between lithosphere and atmosphere system disasters, gave a deterministic explaination for coupling relationship between earthquake and droughtflood disasters. This work supplies a new basis for explaining and forecasting the lithosphere and atmosphere system disaster cluster happening in century scale in Guanzhong Basin.

关 键 词：历史地震 旱涝灾害 节律性 耦合关系 关中盆地 

分 类 号：X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P315.9[天文地球—地震学]