年最大负荷的包络灰预测模型研究  

Study of Grey Wrapping Prediction Model for Yearly Peak Load

作　　者：李晓梅[1] 周晖[1] 李冬梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学电气工程学院,北京100044 [2]北京供电局,北京100031

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2004年第1期66-69,共4页Water Resources and Power

摘　　要：根据北京地区年最大负荷发生的特点,以1997～2002年年最大负荷数据为基础,采用包络灰预测的方法,建立了北京市年最大负荷的包络灰预测模型。通过与其他预测模型的比较,发现所建包络灰预测模型更具合理性和可行性,可以满足现场的实际需要。With the rapid growth of yearly peak loads in Beijing, the issue of prediction for yearly peak load had already caught great attention of electric utility. Based on the data of yearly peak load between 1997 and 2002, in this paper Grey wrapping prediction model for yearly peak load had been built according to the occurring characteristic of yearly peak load in Beijing. In comparison with other model, we find that the Grey wrapping prediction model which can meet the practical requirement of electric utility is more reasonable and feasible. Therefore, the Grey wrapping prediction model for yearly peak load gives electric utility some important references to make power load operation schedules, such as arranging properly switching or reserve planning of generation, transmission and distribution systems.

关 键 词：年最大负荷 包络灰预测模型 灰色区间预测 GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]