一种中长期日负荷曲线预测的新方法——双向夹逼法  

A NOVEL METHOD OF MIDDLE AND LONG TERM FORECASTING FOR DAILY LOAD CURVE-APPROACHING ALGORITHM IN TWO DIRECTIONS

作　　者：何光宇[1] 郭家春[1] 鲍毅[1] 陈雪青[1] 周双喜[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学电机工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《电网技术》2004年第7期27-29,共3页Power System Technology

摘　　要：作者提出了一种预测中长期日负荷曲线的新方法--双向夹逼法,它适用于中长期电网规划和电力市场运营问题。该方法基于相似性原理和双向逼近思想,将预测问题转换为线性规划问题,使问题变得简单和容易求解。提出的方法已应用于三峡电力系统运行规划的大量计算中。实践表明,该方法快速、有效,且有较高的精度。A new method of middle and long term forecasting for daily load pattern, i.e., the approaching algorithm in two directions, is presented which is applicable in the middle and long term power system planning and electricity market operation. Based on the principle of analogy and the idea of approaching predicted daily load curve in two directions, the forecasting problem is transformed into a linear programming problem, thus it can be solved easily. This method has been put into use in the middle and long term operation planning of the Three Gorges Power System. The practical results show that the presented method is fast, effective and more accurate than traditional load forecasting methods.

关 键 词：电力系统 中长期负荷预测 日负荷曲线 相似性原理 双向夹逼法 电网规划 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]