基于时间序列模型分析的深圳市医疗和养老保障问题研究  

Research on Medical and Old-Age Security in Shenzhen Based on Time Series Model Analysis

作　　者：沈乔羽 王慧丽 阮仪琳 武晓庆 迟梦莹 侯平军 

机构地区：[1]河南科技大学数学与统计学院,河南 洛阳

出　　处：《建模与仿真》2022年第4期1104-1118,共15页Modeling and Simulation

摘　　要：通过对人口数量与结构、经济收入与消费水平、医疗资源与水平、社会保障制度与能力等现状进行描述性分析和可视化处理,并对研究对象进行定性分析,通过研究医院配置等方面对各个指标的影响,最后进行定量分析。通过已得到的指标的数据,再以医院、保健院、养老院、医生、服务保障人员为因变量建立时间序列模型,求解医院等指标在未来5、10、15年的量。本文利用了近三十年的数据,数据集合较完整,通过时间序列分析预测指标值,给出医疗和养老保险方案。Through descriptive analysis and visual processing of the current situation of population size and structure, economic income and consumption level, medical resources and level, social security system and capacity, etc., conducting qualitative analysis to the research object, and studying the impact of hospital allocation and other aspects on various indicators, finally, the quantitative analysis is carried out. Based on the obtained index data, a time series model was established with hospitals, health care centers, nursing homes, doctors and service support personnel as dependent variables, to solve the quantity of hospital indicator and others in the next 5, 10 and 15 years. This paper uses data from nearly 30 years, and the data set is relatively complete. Through the time series analysis of the prediction index value, it gives the medical and endowment insurance plan.

关 键 词：时间序列分析 描述性统计 残差检验 ARIMA模型 布朗模型 

分 类 号：TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]