ARIMA模型在预测新型冠状病毒传播中的应用  

Application of ARIMA Model in Transmission Prediction of the COVID-19

作　　者：孟得新 马新然 杨雨欣 杨洁 许韬 王立群[1] 严彦文[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)理学院,北京

出　　处：《建模与仿真》2022年第6期1595-1604,共10页Modeling and Simulation

摘　　要：目前,新冠病毒仍在全球肆虐。为了更好地模拟病毒的传播情况,本文基于疫情数据,应用ARIMA模型对巴基斯坦的新冠疫情趋势进行预测,对模型的相关性质进行检验。最后分析了该模型在传染病预测中的应用价值,为新冠疫情预测提供实践经验。At present, the COVID-19 is still rampant in the world. In order to better simulate the spread of the virus, based on the epidemic data of Pakistan, the ARIMA model is used to predict the trend of the COVID-19 in this paper, and the relevant properties of the model are tested. Finally, the application value of the model in the prediction of infectious diseases is analyzed, which provides practical ex-perience for the prediction of the COVID-19.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 病毒的传播 疫情数据 疫情预测 巴基斯坦 传染病 实践经验 

分 类 号：S85[农业科学—兽医学]