私人小汽车出行行为特征分析与建模  

Analysis and modeling of private car usage through travel behavior

作　　者：刘明君[1] 郭继孚[2] 高利平[1] 张德欣[2] 毛保华[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学城市交通复杂系统理论与技术教育部重点实验室,北京100044 [2]北京交通发展研究中心,北京100036

出　　处：《吉林大学学报（工学版）》2009年第S2期25-30,共6页Journal of Jilin University:Engineering and Technology Edition

基　　金："973"国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2006CB705507);国家自然科学基金项目(70631001;70571005)

摘　　要：比较分析了北京和纽约小汽车保有量、小汽车出行出发时间分布、出行距离、出行目的和承载人数分布的差异。对差异的产生原因进行了探讨,并构建了小汽车使用的影响因素模型,参数标定和弹性分析结果表明,家庭自行车数量、是否有工作、月票、出行目的、停车收费和出行时间对降低居民小汽车的使用频率有积极作用,而家庭小汽车数量、小孩、驾照、车辆主要使用者、同伴和出行距离促进了小汽车的使用。An international comparative analysis between Beijing and New York City is conducted,such as vehicle ownership,diurnal distribution,trip distance,trip purpose and distribution of persons per vehicle of private car.Based on difference of the two cities,the discrete choice model of factors influencing car usage and calibrate the parameters is developed with 2005 Beijing Household Travel Survey data.The estimation results and elasticity effects indicate that such factors as number of household bikes,working or not,monthly ticket,trip purpose,parking fee and trip time have negative effects on private car usage,while number of household cars,child,driving license,main user or not,company and trip distance make positive effects.

关 键 词：交通运输工程 出行行为 小汽车 离散选择模型 弹性分析 

分 类 号：U491.2[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]