基于插值和Newton-Cores公式的GM(1,1)模型的背景值构造新方法与应用  

A New Approach of Background Value-Building and Its Application Based on Data Interpolation and Newton-Cores Formula

作　　者：李俊峰[1] 戴文战[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学自动化系,浙江杭州310033

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2004年第10期122-126,共5页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金(602016)

摘　　要：　分析了GM(1,1)模型中的背景值,提出用插值和数值积分中的Newton-Cores公式重构模型中的背景值,可以有效地提高模型的预测精度和适用性,并将此方法应用到我国人均发电量预测建模中,理论分析和应用实例表明了文章所提的方法的有效性.In this paper, the author analyses that the building approach method of background value in grey model GM(1,1) is an important and that rationally constructing background value can improves precision and adaptability of the grey model. The method of background value reconstruction in grey model GM(1,1) based on data interpolation and Newton-Cores formula of numerical value integral is pointed out. Simulation examples show the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

关 键 词：人均发电量 GM 理论分析 中国 有效性 模型 适用性 背景值 插值 公式 

分 类 号：N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]