商业银行客户流失预测模型研究  

A Study on a Predictive Model of Customer defection in a Commercial Bank

作　　者：蒙肖莲[1] 蔡淑琴[1] 杜宽旗[2] 寇建亭 

机构地区：[1]华中科技大学管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]南京理工大学经管学院,江苏南京210094 [3]南京华夏银行,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《系统工程》2004年第12期67-71,共5页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70271030)

摘　　要：以某商业银行的客户流失为研究样本,使用数据挖掘及统计技术分析和识别影响商业银行客户流失的因素,并建立客户流失预测模型。实证研究结果表明所使用的扰动预测技术获得了满意的预测效果。This article examines a commercial bank's customer defection. Applying statistic and data mining technology (including) cross-tabulation and logistic regression, we examine customer database to identify the attributes that affect (customer) attrition and develop a model of (customer) defection in the bank. The empirical evaluation results suggest that the proposed churn prediction technique exhibits satisfactory predictive effectiveness.

关 键 词：数据挖掘 客户流失模型 LOGISTIC回归 交叉表分析 

分 类 号：F27[经济管理—企业管理]