三种致病菌在鲜榨苹果汁中的生存/死亡概率预测模型  

Predictive Model on the Growth / No-growth Probability of Three Pathogenic Bacterias in Fresh Apple Juices

作　　者：李军[1] 高海生[2] 汪政富 葛毅强 胡小松 

机构地区：[1]中国检验检疫科学研究院,北京100025 [2]河北科技师范学院食品工程系,秦皇岛066600 [3]中国农业食品科学与营养工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国食品学报》2006年第4期11-18,共8页Journal of Chinese Institute Of Food Science and Technology

基　　金：科技部"十五"重大专项课题(No.2001BA501A21)

摘　　要：采用三因素五水平中心组合试验设计(CCD),应用二值变量描述了大肠杆菌、沙门氏菌和金黄色葡萄球菌等致病菌在不同温度、pH和水分活度下的生存状况。通过Logistic回归过程建立了生存概率与生长抑制因子之间关系的数学预测模型,确定了其在鲜榨苹果汁中生存的限制条件,同时分析了温度、pH和水分活度在生长临界条件下的协同作用。经过实验验证,大肠杆菌、沙门氏菌、金黄色葡萄球菌的生存概率模型的预测结果与实际测定结果基本一致,在鲜榨苹果的水分活度(Aw=0.98)下,生存概率p=0.1时的等值线可以作为细菌生存的临界线,从而确定了鲜榨苹果汁中致病菌的生存临界条件。By means of Central Composite Design （CCD） for three factors five-level variables, the growth and no growth situations of such three strains as Escherichia coli, Salmonella enterica and Sarcina aurea Henrici under the different conditions of temperature, pH and water activity （Aw） were described with two-valued variables. Three mathematical models predicting the relations between the surviving probability and the growth control factors were established with Logistic Regression processing, and with the models the constraint conditions of bacteria surviving in fruit juices were determined, and the coordinated effects of pH, Aw and temperature under critical conditions were analyzed. The predicted outcomes with the predicting models agreed with the experimental results for above three bacteria. And the isoline under the condition of 0.98 Aw with p = 0.1. Surviving probability could be used as a critical line of the bacteria surviving to identify the surviving critical conditions for bacteria in the fresh apple juices.

关 键 词：鲜榨苹果汁 致病菌 生存/死亡概率预测模型 

分 类 号：TS255.44[轻工技术与工程—农产品加工及贮藏工程] S947.12[轻工技术与工程—食品科学与工程]