不确定度评定方法在汽车事故再现中的应用  

Application of the Uncertainty Evaluation Algorithm to Automobile Accident Recurrence

作　　者：邓海英[1] 莫耀祖[1] 蒋淑霞[1] 韩志刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学工业学院,湖南长沙410004

出　　处：《中南林学院学报》2006年第4期96-100,共5页Journal of Central South Forestry University

摘　　要：介绍了不确定度理论及其评定方法,结合车辆碰撞事故的具体特点,给出了基于能量守恒的车速计算表达式.通过选择适当的输入参数作为不确定因子,分别计算各分量等效速度标准不确定度.考虑不确定度累积和传播,得到车速输出结果的合成标准不确定度和展伸不确定度,以此检验事故再现结果的准确程度.通过具体事故案例的分析计算和计算机检验,验证该方法的适用性.This paper introduces the uncertainty theory and its evaluation algorithm, and puts forward the vehicle-velocity calculating formula based on energy conservation and the characteristics in vehicle-impacts. The standard uncertainty of each equivalent velocity is respectively evaluated by selecting a suitable factor in a vehicle-impact. Taking the accumulation and spreading of the uncertainties into consideration, the paper obtains the results of combined standard uncertainty and stretch uncertainty of the vehicle-velocity. They can be used to check the credibility of the accident reconstruction. The practicability of the method is proved through analysis- calculating and computer testing of a specific example.

关 键 词：交通工程 不确定度评定 车辆碰撞 事故再现 能量守恒 

分 类 号：U491.31[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]