2006-2020年我国中等职教发展趋势预测  

Forecast for the Trend of the Amount Development of Secondary Vocational Education in China during Year 2006-2020

作　　者：欧阳河 郭峰[2] 张燕[2] 安秀芳[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南省教科院高等教育研究所,湖南长沙410006 [2]湖南农业大学科技师范学院,湖南长沙410128

出　　处：《职业技术教育》2006年第19期35-37,共3页Vocational and Technical Education

摘　　要：根据2005年对全国人口1‰调查数据分析预测：2006—2020年期间，我国高中阶段学龄人口和中职在校生数呈下降趋势；师资需求先升后降；预算内经费需求呈上升趋势。未来15年我国中等职教将发生四大战略转变：由规模扩张向质量提高转变；由相对单一的东、中、西部和城、乡发展政策向多样化政策转变；经常性经费由以学生支付为主向以国家支付为主转变。Analyzing and forecasting according to the investigation data of 1‰ national population in 2005, the results show that, during year 2006-2020,the population of the age of high school and the amount of secondary vocational school students manifest the trend of decreasing the demand of teaching staff will increase at first and decrease later;, the demand of budget funding manifest the trend of increasing, In future 15 years, the development of secondary vocational education will take strategic change.＂ transform the enlargement of amount to the enhancement of quality;, transform the relative single policy to the diversity of policy; transform the payment of recurrent capital mainly contributed by students to mainly contributed by the Country.

关 键 词：中等职业教育 预测 战略转变 

分 类 号：G719.21[文化科学—职业技术教育学]