北京城市网络交通流混合流量建模  

Urban Traffic Flow Volume Modeling for Beijing Using a Mixed-Flow Model

作　　者：李志恒[1] 尹胜超[1] 田野[1] 李力[1] 赵志强[1] 吉岩[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学自动化系,北京100084

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2008年第3期111-114,共4页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2006CB705506);国家高技术发展研究计划(863计划)(2007AA11Z222);国家自然科学基金项目(60774034;60721003;50708055)

摘　　要：针对北京城市网络交通流的统计特性,提出了一种新颖的混合流量模型,通过三类交通流量的组合得出:M型日均流量、振荡幅值符合时变Super-Gaussian分布的分形随机波动和到达率符合Poisson分布的流量"尖峰",以此来描述实际的交通流.通过该模型得出北京市交通流数据的去日平均概要曲线,对去日概要曲线进行离差统计分析可以较好地反映实际观察的交通流"尖峰"现象,这种现象和Internet通讯流的研究结果相符.进一步对交通流"尖峰"的到达规律进行研究发现,"尖峰"到达时间间隔呈负指数分布,并且这种随机波动具有与高速公路交通流相似的多分形特性.对交通流"尖峰"的认识和其到达率的结论对于进一步理解城市交通流复杂现象的起因和特性,提高交通流预测和仿真效果有着重要作用.This paper proposes a new mixed-flow model to capture the main statistical features of traffic volume flows over Beijing transportation networks. The model consists of three parts ： i.e. the major part decided by residents＇ everyday travel, which remains relatively stable and follows a certain M-shape curve; random fluctuations whose magnitude follow time variant super-gaussian distribution, and ＂peaks＂ whose arriving rates obey the nega- tive exponential distribution. This model can describe well the arriving behaviors of the ＂peaks＂ in the traffic volume flow. Further analysis of ＂peaks＂ arrives in negative exponential distribution and traffic flow volume is in a multi-fractal time series. The obtained results shed light on our understanding of the origin and characteristics of the urban traffic flow, which are thus useful for traffic prediction and control.

关 键 词：交通流理论 统计分析 混合流量模型 

分 类 号：U491.112[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]