节点负荷预测与发电控制结合的状态预估方法  

Method for State Forecasting and Estimation Based on Nodal Load Forecasting and Generation Control

作　　者：韩力[1] 韩学山[1] 雷鸣[2] 马晓红[2] 杨明[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学电气工程学院,山东省济南市250061 [2]山东电力调度中心,山东省济南市250001

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2009年第4期16-20,共5页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50377021,50677036)~~

摘　　要：欲使电力系统安全、可靠、经济运行,超前预知可信的信息对电力系统运行调度与控制是非常重要和关键的。在已有研究基础上,进一步分析了电力系统状态预估模型和算法,构建了考虑节点扰动功率的状态预估模型。该模型以当前时刻的状态估计作为初始值,考虑了系统扰动前后总变化量的准稳态过程,兼顾因节点负荷需求变化的随机性、发电调度控制计划本身及执行过程中的不确定性导致节点扰动功率所具有的量测特性。借助加权最小二乘及高阶项修正的方法,预估电力系统状态的变化趋势。实际系统的测试结果验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。To maintain security, reliability and economy of power system operation, predict credible information in advance is crucial for the power system dispatch and control. Based on research on power system state forecasting, state estimation, and concerned algorithms, a state forecasting and estimation model considering the nodal perturbation power is constructed. In this model, the state estimation results are used as initial value; the quasi-steady process of total variation before and after disturbances are taken into account; and the measurement characteristics of nodal perturbation power due to the randomness of load demand, the self and performing uncertainty of generators scheduling control plan is considered. Weighted least squares and high order correction techniques are employed to forecast and estimate variation trends of system states. The testing results of a real power grid verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method.

关 键 词：状态预估 状态估计 负荷预测 加权最小二乘 电力系统 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]