GM(1,1)周期修正模型及在电力负荷预测中的应用  

The Period Residual Modification of GM(1,1) and Its Application to Power Load Forecasting

作　　者：赵海青[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学应用数学系,河北保定071003

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2009年第1期115-117,共3页Operations Research and Management Science

摘　　要：模型GM(1,1)是电力系统负荷预测的一种有效的方法,但利用GM(1,1)模型难以反映序列随机的季节性周期波动变化。本文阐述的周期修正模型,可以很好地解决这一问题。实例表明,此模型简单有效,对于季节性预测问题有很强的实用性和较高的预测精度。GM（1,1 ）is an effective approach to the power system load forecasting, but it is difficult to use the seasonal cycle fluctuations changes of random sequences. This paper describes the period residual modification of GM（1,1 ） , and it can solve this problem. The example shows that this model is simple and effective. It is very practical for seasonal forecasting and it has high forecast accuracy.

关 键 词：负荷预测 GM(1 1)模型 周期修正 季节性预测 

分 类 号：TM731[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]