不同概率表征的贝叶斯推理试题形式结构的同质性研究  

Study of the Homogeneity of Form Structure on Bayesian Reasoning with Different Probability Representation

作　　者：杨莉[1] 胡竹菁[2] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学教育研究院,厦门361005 [2]江西师范大学心理学院,南昌330022

出　　处：《心理学探新》2009年第6期28-31,共4页Psychological Exploration

摘　　要：研究从先验概率、概率表征、推理任务等方面探讨了经典贝叶斯推理研究中存在的不足,试图在"知识和试题双重模型"框架下,探索现实和标准贝叶斯试题的形式结构的同质性,结果表明:1)自然频次表征比百分比表征的贝叶斯推算题正确率高,这是因为试题的形式结构不同,与概率表征无关;2)贝叶斯判断题与贝叶斯推算题的试题形式结构存在显著差异;3)贝叶斯推算题中,概率词表征与其它两种表征的试题形式结构存在显著差异,其实质是贝叶斯判断。This paper pointed out the deficiency of classic Bayesian reasoning on prior probability,probability representation,reasoning task,and tried to explore the homogeneity of form structure between realistic and standard Bayesian question under the Dual Structure Model of Item and Knowledge.The results indicated that：1）The reason that right ratio of frequency format was higher than percent format on Bayesian calculation was the difference of form structure,and was independent of probability representation;2）There was significant effect of form structure between Bayesian judgment and calculation;3）The Bayesian calculation question with verbal probability format essentially was judgment question.

关 键 词：贝叶斯推理 概率表征 双重结构模型 

分 类 号：B842.5[哲学宗教—基础心理学]